基于GIS的藏羊生长发育期气象灾害风险评估  

GIS-based Estimation of Meteorological Disaster Risk During Tibetan Sheep Growth

作　　者：韩炳宏 周秉荣[1,3] 赵恒和 石明明 孙瑛 牛得草[4] 傅华[4] HAN Bing-hong;ZHOU Bing-rong;ZHAO Heng-he;SHI Ming-ming;SUN Ying;NIU De-cao;FU Hua(Qinghai Province Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation,Xining 810001,Qinghai,China;Meteorology Bureau of Hainan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture,Gonghe 813099,Qinghai,China;Qinghai Province Institute of Meteorology,Xining 810001,Qinghai,China;State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-ecosystem,College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730020,Gansu,China)

机构地区：[1]青海省防灾减灾重点实验室,青海西宁810001 [2]青海省海南藏族自治州气象局,青海共和813099 [3]青海省气象科学研究所,青海西宁810001 [4]兰州大学草地农业生态系统国家重点实验室,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2018年第6期1402-1409,共8页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2016FCY0501930)

摘　　要：以高海拔脆弱生态环境下的藏羊为研究对象,利用1961—2017年逐日气象资料、承灾体脆弱性、孕灾环境敏感性以及社会经济条件等因子,结合灾害理论模型,通过Arc GIS空间分析工具,分析评估了该区藏羊生长发育不同时期气象灾害综合风险。结果表明：高海拔脑山地区羔育期和剪毛期风险较高,浅山或川区风险较低;打草期和配种期浅山、川区及河谷地带风险较高,而脑山地区较低。由此可见,地形因素是影响高海拔地区藏羊生长发育期的主导因子。Tibetan sheep in alpine fragile ecological environment was researched using the daily meteorological data during the period of 1961-2017,and the vulnerability of the sheep,environmental sensitivity and social and economic conditions were analyzed. The theory model of disaster,meteorological disaster risk estimation and ArcGIS spatial analysis were applied to lucubrate and estimate the sheep growth in different periods. The results showed that the risk in the alpine zone was higher in lambing and shearing periods but lower in the hills and on the gentle slope.In copulation and grass harvest periods,the risk was higher in the hills and valleys and on the gentle slope but lower in the nalpine zone. Thus it can be seen that terrain is a dominant factor affecting Tibetan sheep growth in the alpine zone.

关 键 词：藏羊 生长发育 气象灾害 风险评估 青海 

分 类 号：S826[农业科学—畜牧学] S811.1[农业科学—畜牧兽医]