基于灰色线性回归模型的哈尔滨铁路枢纽货运量预测研究  

A Study on a Freight Volume Forecast Model at Harbin Railway Hub based on Grey–Linear Regression Model

作　　者：颜阳 武中凯 尹传忠[1] 高文慧 李文锦 YAN Yang;WU Zhong-kai;YIN Chuan-zhong;GAO Wen-hui;LI Wen-jin(School of Traffic and Transportation,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China;Operation and Development Department,China Railway Harbin Group Co.,Ltd,Harbin 150006,Heilongjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学交通运输学院,上海201306 [2]中国铁路哈尔滨局集团有限公司经营开发处,黑龙江哈尔滨150006

出　　处：《铁道货运》2018年第11期1-5,15,共6页Railway Freight Transport

基　　金：中国铁路总公司科技研究开发计划课题(2017X009-J)

摘　　要：为合理规划哈尔滨铁路枢纽基础设施及物流网络,促进哈尔滨铁路枢纽更好地服务于现代物流发展的需要,基于哈尔滨铁路枢纽的定位与货运现状,在考虑线性回归模型与灰色预测模型各自优势的基础上,构建哈尔滨铁路枢纽货运量预测的灰色线性回归模型,通过计算平均偏差比率对模型进行检验。检验结果表明,灰色线性回归模型预测结果平均偏差比率较小,介于灰色预测模型和一元线性回归模型之间,同时该模型结合了货运量与时间变化、生产总值之间的关系,预测结果切合实际,可以为制定铁路货运枢纽规划及物流发展战略提供科学决策依据。To rationally design the infrastructure and logistics network at Harbin railway hub, which is to serve the needs of modern logistics development better, the paper puts forward a Grey-Linear Regression Model for freight volume forecast at Harbin railway hub, based on its current positioning and development trend through taking advantages of both the linear regression model and the grey model respectively. Then the paper also verifies the proposed model by calculating the average deviation ratio, of which results shows that the small average deviation ratio is between that of the grey model and the linear regression model. Therefore, the paper concludes that the proposed model is practical in forecasting freight volume and can serve as a scientific base for decision making in railway freight hub planning and formulating logistics development strategies due to the fact that it relates freight volume to both time variation and gross value of production.

关 键 词：哈尔滨铁路枢纽 货运量预测 灰色理论 灰色线性回归模型 

分 类 号：U294.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]