基于计量经济学的铁路交通基础设施与经济增长关系研究  

Relationship between Railway Transport Infrastructure and Economic Growth Based on Econometrics

作　　者：吕丹[1] 薛锋[1,2] LV Dan;XUE Feng(School of Transportation and Logistics;Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,Chin;2.National United Engineering Laboratory of integrated and intelligent Transportation,Chengdu 610031,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学,交通运输与物流学院,成都610031 [2]综合交通运输智能化国家地方联合工程实验室,成都610031

出　　处：《交通运输工程与信息学报》2018年第4期101-108,共8页Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(15BGL003);四川省教育厅自然科学项目(15ZB0477);成都市哲学社会科学规划项目(2018L04);西南交通大学“双一流”建设项目(交通软科学类)(JDSYLYB2018030)

摘　　要：交通基础设施与区域经济增长之间的关系一直是国家、地方政府和投资者关注的热点问题,交通基础设施通过乘数效应、旅行效应和外部效应促进经济增长,经济增长是交通基础设施需求增加和规划建设的重要前提。使用四川省铁路交通基础设施投资建设与经济增长的时间序列,利用ADF单根检验法和Johansen协整检验法建立时间序列长期稳定的正相关协整方程,运用最小二乘法(OLS)构造铁路交通基础设施投资建设与经济增长的线性回归模型。实证分析了铁路交通基础设施投资建设对经济增长具有持续稳定的支撑和正向推进作用。The relationship between railway transport infrastructure and regional economic growth is a hot topic for investors, the local government and country. Basing on the basic principles of econometrics and using investment and construction of rail infrastructure and economic growth time series in Sichuan province, a long-term stability of time series Co-integration equation was establish by means of ADF single root and Johansen Co-integration test methods. A linear regression model of investment and construction of rail infrastructure and economic growth was constructed by the way of least-squares （OLS） and it affirmed the truth that railway transportation infrastructure investment and construction support for sustained and steady economic growth.

关 键 词：铁路交通基础设施 经济增长 协整方程 线性回归模型 

分 类 号：F532[经济管理—产业经济]