用相应时段累积因子预报累积降水的初步探讨  

ON FORECASTING CUMULATION PRECIPITATION BY USE OF CUMULATION FACTORS IN TIME INTERVAL CORRESPONDING WITH THE TIME INTERVAL OF CUMULATION PRECIPITATION

作　　者：陈焱[1] 王兴荣[2] 刘忠平[1] 罗爱文[1] 沈伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽省气象台,合肥230061 [2]安徽省气象科学研究所,合肥230061

出　　处：《气象科学》2002年第3期356-361,共6页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

摘　　要：本文针对当前数值预报产品释用工作中通常存在的因子的瞬时量与预报降水的累积量这样一个时间尺度的不相匹配的问题 ,提出了用相应时段内因子的累积量预报降水的累积量的预报方案。用该方法处理的累积因子与降水量之间的相关系数 ,与瞬时因子相比有显著提高。以此为依据 ,用 HL AFS数值预报产品 ,建立了一个降水量滚动预报系统 ,有较好的使用效果。In this paper,pointing to the issue,usually existing in the interpretation and use of numerical forecast production,that temporal scales between the instantaneous value factors and cumulative value of the forecasted precipitation don't match, a new method forecasting cumulation precipitation is put forward by the use of cumulation factors in time interval corresponding with the time interval of cumulation precipitation.The interrelation quotients of the cumulation factors transacted by the method with the precipitation obviously exceed that of the instantaneous factors.According to the method,using HLAFS numerical forecast production,a scroll forecast system of precipitation is established and the effect is good.

关 键 词：数值预报 累积因子 累积降水 相关系数 降水预报 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P456.7