由昆仑山口西8.1级地震分析中国大陆1～3年地震大形势  

Analysis to the earthquake situation within 1to 3 years in mainland of China From the West Kunlun Mountain Pass M8.1 earthquake

作　　者：侯海峰[1] 刁守中[1] 华爱军[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东省地震局,山东济南250014

出　　处：《华北地震科学》2002年第3期22-30,共9页North China Earthquake Sciences

基　　金：中国地震局"十五"科技攻关计划 0 1 -0 4-0 1子专题经费资助

摘　　要：在昆仑山口西 8.1级地震震前分析基础上 ,对该次地震对中国大陆地震活动趋势的影响进行了分析 ,认为这次地震是 2 0世纪以来第五活跃幕闭幕阶段的最大地震 ,据震前 3年地震活动类比等推测 ,未来 3年内中国大陆西部仍可能发生 7级以上地震 ,东部地区可能发生少量 6级地震。The influence of West Kunlun Mountain Pass M 8.1 earthquake on theseismicity in the mainland of China is analyzed.We conclude this earthquake is the largest one occurred in mainland at the end of the fifth active stage.Expected from analogy of seismicity in previous 3 years ,some M ≥7.0 earthquakes may occur in the western part of China in future three years,and M ≥6.0 events may occur in the eastern part of China.

关 键 词：昆仑山 中国大陆 地震活动趋势 地壳形变特征 地震期幕特征 

分 类 号：P315.5[天文地球—地震学]