家庭部门生活能源消费碳排放:测度与驱动因素研究  

Measurement and Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions from Household Energy Consumption

作　　者：计志英[1] 赖小锋[1] 贾利军[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海大学悉尼工商学院,上海201899

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2016年第5期64-72,共9页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：教育部人文社科研究青年基金项目"产品内国际分工下中国外贸比较优势测算:方法改进;实证度量与政策含义(编号:12YJC790074)

摘　　要：本文运用IPCC的二氧化碳排放量测算方法,在省际层面测度了我国家庭部门直接能源消费碳排放,并基于扩展的STIRPAT和Kaya模型,构建家庭部门直接能源消费碳排放影响因子动态面板数据模型,对我国2003-2012年分省面板数据样本及城乡子样本进行系统GMM估计。本文研究表明,第一,我国城乡家庭部门碳排放总量和人均碳排放在近十年都呈快速上升趋势,家庭部门碳排放的空间分布具有明显的地域差异特征,高碳排放地区主要集中在东、中部地区,西部地区的碳排放水平较低;第二,城乡家庭部门生活能源消费的上期碳排放量对本期碳排放产生重要的正向影响,这反映出我国家庭部门碳排放具有显著的惯性特征和路径依赖性,是一种动态自适应机制;人口规模、居民消费水平、能源消费结构、碳排放强度、能源消费强度和城镇化因素,都对我国居民能源消费碳排放总量及人均碳排放具有显著的影响,城乡之间的家庭能源消费碳排放驱动因素存在差异。本文研究得到如下启示及政策含义:家庭部门碳减排将是一个有步骤、分区域的渐进过程,我国碳减排政策应当兼顾消费升级和碳排放的双重目标,努力构建分层次碳减排的适应性预期机制。具体而言,一方面应着眼于引导和激励居民低碳消费,缓解人口规模增加、消费水平提升和城镇化对家庭部门碳减排的压力;另一方面要通过能源价格改革、财政政策和环境规制政策等优化我国能源消费结构,不断降低煤炭消费比重,提高清洁能源的消费。同时,通过技术创新、设备改造等科技手段提高煤炭利用效率,降低碳排放强度,这些政策将更有利于城镇家庭部门碳减排。In this article,the IPCC method is used to measure the carbon emissions from household sector at the provincial level.Then we construct an extended dynamic panel data model based on STIRPAT and KAYA identity to study the driving factors of households' carbon emissions.The systematic GMM is used to estimate the dynamic model with the provincial sample as well as the city-rural subsample.This article shows the following results.First,the total and per capita carbon emissions in urban and rural areas increased rapidly in the past ten years,and there are obvious heterogeneity characteristics on the regional distribution of carbon emissions.High carbon emissions are mainly concentrated in the eastern and central regions,while in the western region the carbon emission is relatively low.Second,the carbon emission in the prior period has important positive effects on the current emissions,which is a dynamic and adaptive mechanism reflecting the significant inertia feature and path dependence in China' s household sector carbon emissions.The factors of population,household consumption level,the structure of energy consumption,intensity of carbon emission,intensity of energy consumption and the level of urbanization have obvious significant effects on total carbon emissions and the per capita carbon emissions.There are differences in the driving factor of carbon emissions from residential living energy consumption between city and rural sectors.In this article,we get the following policy implications:Reduction of carbon emissions in China will be in a gradual process,and the policy should consider the dual objectives of consumption upgrading and carbon emissions and set up the adaptive expectation mechanism of carbon emission reduction at different levels.In particular,on the one hand,government should focus on guiding and encouraging people to choose lower carbon consumption,ease the increasing population,consumption level and the pressure of urbanization on carbon emission reduction.On the other hand,government should op

关 键 词：家庭能源消费碳排放 驱动因素 STIRPAT-Kaya模型 系统GMM估计 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济] X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]