上海市胰腺癌的流行现状和趋势研究  

Study on Epidemiologic Status and Trend of Pancreatic Cancer in Shanghai.

作　　者：李新建[1] 郑莹[1] 沈玉珍[1] 向泳梅[1] 韩阿琴[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海市疾病预防控制中心,200336

出　　处：《外科理论与实践》2002年第5期342-345,共4页Journal of Surgery Concepts & Practice

摘　　要：目的 :探讨上海市胰腺癌发病和死亡情况以及变化趋势。方法 :收集上海市肿瘤登记中胰腺癌的发病和死亡资料 ,从中计算出发病率和死亡率 ;用线性回归和非线性回归拟合方法研究胰腺癌的流行趋势以及变化特点。结果 :①2 0 0 0年上海市胰腺癌的标化发病率和死亡率分别为 6 .0 1 0万和 5 .5 1 0万 ;②胰腺癌的发病和死亡病例中 50岁以上者约占 93 % ,且发病和死亡粗率随年龄呈指数上升 (Y =0 .0 4 33 +e1 .0 1 1 6x 和Y =0 .0 2 4 7+e1 .0 885x) ;③无论发病率和死亡率 ,成年人中男性都高于女性 ;④市区的发病和死亡率稍高于市郊和郊县 ;⑤ 1 980年～ 2 0 0 0年期间 ,发病和死亡人数上升趋势非常显著 ;发病和死亡率上升也较明显 ;女性标化发病率和死亡率上升斜率较小 ,但仍有统计学意义。结论 :上海市胰腺癌的发病率和死亡率比 2 0世纪 70年代上升了 50 %左右。To study the incidence and mortality rate of pancreatic cancer, as well as the trend of related changes in Shanghai, China. Met hods: Data were collected from the 'Shanghai cancer registry system'. L inear and non-linear regressions were used to study the epidemiologic trend and related change characteristic of pancreatic cancer. Results: ①The age-adjusted incidence and mortality rate of pancreatic cancer during 200 0 in Shanghai were 6.0/100 000 and 5.5/100 000 respectively. ②Among the new cas es and those who succumbed during the year, 93% were persons older than 50 years , and the incidence and the rough mortality rate increased exponentially with th e age (Y=0.0433+e 1.0116 x and Y=0.0247+e 1.0885x ). ③The incidence a nd mortality rate of pancreatic cancer in the male was higher than that in the f emale. ④The incidence and mortality rate of pancreatic cancer in the urban area was higher than that of the rural districts. ⑤The rise in incidence and mortal ity was highly significant during the period from 1980 to 2000. Although the ris e slope of age-adjusted incidence and death rate was more moderate in the femal e, it was significant. Conclusions: The age-adjusted incidence and mortality rate of pancreatic cancer increased about 50% as compared to the 1970's. The trend analysis shows that the incidence and mortality rate of pancre atic cancer is rising in Shanghai.

关 键 词：胰腺癌 发病率 死亡率 上海 流行病学 发展趋势 

分 类 号：R735.9[医药卫生—肿瘤]