北京城区主要肿瘤发病率时间趋势分析及预测  

Analysis and Prediction on the Time Trends of Cancer Incidence in Urban Beijing

作　　者：李玲[1] 王启俊[1] 祝伟星[1] 邢秀梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学临床肿瘤学院暨北京市肿瘤防治研究所,北京100034

出　　处：《中国肿瘤》2002年第10期576-578,共3页China Cancer

摘　　要：目的]利用基于人群的肿瘤发病率监测资料 ,进行时间趋势分析和预测。[方法]预测方法采用灰色动态模型中最基本、应用最广泛的GM(1,1)模型。[结果]北京城区主要肿瘤发病率随时间推移均呈上升趋势 (男性肺癌的时间变化趋势不明显 ) ,男女性全部肿瘤发病率年平均增长在1.5%左右 ,女性肺癌和乳腺癌年平均增长在2.5%以上。预计到2005年 ,男女性全部肿瘤发病率将比1997年上升15%以上 ,女性肺癌和乳腺癌将上升30%以上。[结论]为北京市肿瘤防治工作指明了重点 ,从而使肿瘤防治工作更有预见性和针对性。Data from population_based cancer registry were used to analyze and predict the incidence trends of main cancers in urban Beijing.Grey dynamic model was used in trend prediction.During 1988～1997, incidence for overall cancer incidence increased 1.5% annually, and that for female lung and breast cancers increased 2.5% annually. By the year 2005,the predicting incidence for overall cancer incidence will increase 15% than that in 1997. In the meantime, incidence for female lung and breast cancer will increase 30%.[Conclusion]Incidence trends of major cancers remind us to pay more attention to cancer prevention and control in Beijing.

关 键 词：肿瘤 发病率 灰色动态模型 流行病学 北京 

分 类 号：R73－31[医药卫生—肿瘤]