“十三五”规划碳减排目标下碳交易机制的博弈分析  

A Game analysis on carbon trade under carbon mitigation targets during the 13^(th) Five-Year plan period

作　　者：李薇[1] 董艳艳[1] 卢晗[1] 黄奎[1] 王振宇 LI Wei;DONG Yan-yan;LU Han;HUANG Kui;WANG Zhen-yu(Key Laboratory of Regional Energy System Optimization, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;Nan Rui (Wuhan) Electrical Equipment and Engineering Center for Energy Efficiency Assessment, Wuhan 430000, China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学区域能源系统优化教育部重点实验室,北京102206 [2]南瑞(武汉)电气设备与工程能效测评中心,湖北武汉430000

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2016年第9期2857-2864,共8页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(61471171);环保公益性行业科研专项(201509010);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(2015ZZD08)

摘　　要：基于碳排放许可值、CO_2减排技术与成本、碳交易参数的浮动性与不确定性,构建碳交易机制的区间两阶段不确定性随机规划模型(TISP),通过优化模型寻求系统净收益与CO_2排放许可的平衡点,结果表明,当μ=40%时,系统的净收益为最优,且系统的净收益在碳交易模式下高于非交易模式下的净收益;当μ<40%时,燃煤电厂在碳交易模式下只需采用CS减排技术均能达到排放许可要求,在非交易模式下则同时采用CS和CA减排技术;当μ>40%时,3种发电方式在保证CS减排技术的前提下,均要增加CA减排技术的处理.碳交易机制有利于减排技术的合理分配及用能权、碳排放权和排污权交易市场的建立,尽快实现市场化节能碳减排目标.Considering the floatability and uncertainties of Carbon Trade, this paper proposed a under Carbon Trade modelcalled a two-stage inexact-stochastic programming (TISP) which was structured on the basis of Carbon emissions permitsand the technologies and costs of carbon emission reduction. Then the balance of net benefit and CO2 emission permit ofthe system was sought through the optimization model. The paper showed the result about a significant index called μ.Firstly, when the model defined μ=40%, net system benefit achieved optimal and the benefit was higher under carbontrading than that under non-trading. Secondly, when the model defined μ<40%, the carbon reduction requirements of thecoal-fired power plants could be met only by capture and storage (CS) reduction technology under the conditions ofcarbon trading or both the CS and chemical absorption (CA) reduction technology under the conditions of non-trading.Lastly, when the model defined μ>40%, all of the three power plants must develop the CA reduction technologyprocessing on the premise of guaranteeing the CS technology. In a word, Carbon Trade would not only contribute torationally allocating carbon reduction technologies but also help to establish a new trading markets including energy-usespecification, carbon-emission criterion and pollutant-emission restriction. The final aim was to make the target of thecarbon dioxide reduction come true as early as possible.

关 键 词：碳排放权交易 区间规划 随机规划 CS和CA减排技术 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X32