变形预测模型在地铁保护区监测中的应用  

Application of the Deformation Prediction Models in Subway Reserves Monitoring

作　　者：黄浩 高俊强[1] 苏小文[1,2] 李静[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京工业大学测绘学院,江苏南京211816 [2]中设设计集团股份有限公司,江苏南京210014

出　　处：《地理空间信息》2017年第1期104-106,共3页Geospatial Information

摘　　要：结合某地铁保护区隧道监测工程,对沉降数据进行了分析及建模预测,以掌握其变形规律并预测变形趋势。由于单一预测模型存在弊端,较难达到预测要求,所以将灰色预测模型与时间序列模型进行组合,并将新陈代谢的思想引入组合模型进行建模预测。结果表明,新陈代谢灰色-时序组合模型预测结果可靠,具有较高应用价值。Combined with a monitoring engineering of subway reserves, this paper analyzed the settlement data and modeling prediction, in order to grasp the deformation rules and predict the deformation tendency. It was difficult to meet the requirements because of the disadvantages of single prediction model. The paper combined the grey model and the time series model, and introduced the thought of metabolism into the combined model to modeling prediction. The conclusion shows that the prediction result calculated by the metabolism greytime series combination model has a higher accuracy and can be wildly used.

关 键 词：地铁保护区监测 预测模型 灰色-时序组合模型 新陈代谢 

分 类 号：P258[天文地球—测绘科学与技术]