基于阈值识别的生态系统生产功能风险评价——以北方农牧交错带为例  

Risk Assessment of Ecosystems Production Based on the Thresholds Identification:The Case Study of Farming-pastoral Ecotone in Northern China

作　　者：石晓丽[1,2] 陈红娟 史文娇[4,5] 王丽艳[1,2] 潘佩佩[1,2] 梁彦庆[1,2] SHI Xiaoli;CHEN Hongjuan;SHI Wenjiao;WANG Liyan;PAN Peipei;LIANG Yanqing(College of Resources and Environment Sciences, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050024, China;Key Laboratory of Environmental Evolvement and Ecological Construction of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 050024, China;School of Land Resources and Urban Planning, Hebei Geological University, Shijiazhuang 050031, China;Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

机构地区：[1]河北师范大学资源与环境科学学院,河北石家庄050024 [2]河北省环境演变与生态建设实验室,河北石家庄050024 [3]河北地质大学土地资源与城乡规划学院,河北石家庄050031 [4]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [5]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049

出　　处：《生态环境学报》2017年第1期6-12,共7页Ecology and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：河北省社会科学基金项目(HB16SH034)

摘　　要：明晰未来气候变化情景下不同类型生态系统生产功能面临的风险,对因地制宜地采取气候变化适应措施具有重要的现实意义。目前从阈值识别角度对生态系统风险进行评价的研究还较少。该研究提出一种基于阈值识别的气候变化下生态系统风险分析的方法。基于气候、土壤和植被数据,运用大气-植被相互作用模型对1961—2080年北方农牧交错带的生态系统净初级生产力进行模拟,根据气候变化对不同类型生态系统净初级生产力的影响定义了"危险的影响"和"不能接受的影响"两类阈值,并根据生态系统净初级生产力在气候变化下的减少趋势与两类阈值的对比关系进行风险等级的划分,进而对未来气候变化下北方农牧交错带不同类型生态系统生产功能面临的风险进行了评估。结果表明:气候变化将给北方农牧交错带生态系统生产功能带来风险,以低风险为主。风险分布与未来气候变化密切相关,主要集中在西北地区北部、内蒙古地区东北部和东北地区中南部。风险范围随增温幅度的增加而扩展,到远期风险面积达到165.72×10~4 km^2,占研究区总面积的44.78%。混交林、稀树草原与荒漠草原较为危险;高寒草甸与常绿针叶林是较为安全的生态系统。农牧交错带核心区风险程度高于边缘区,揭示了其核心区在未来气候变化下趋于脆弱的趋势。It is helpful for decision-making on adaptation of climate change to illustrate risks of net primary production forecosystem from climate change.The thresholds identification method has been documented little in previous studies.From the dataof climate,soil texture and vegetation,Atmosphere Vegetation Interaction Model version2was employed to simulate the net primaryproduction of ecosystem during the period of1961-2080.Based on the definition of thresholds,we presented a new assessmentmethod to detect the climate change risk on ecosystems.According to the climate change impacts on the net primary production ofecosystems,the‘dangerous impact’and the‘unacceptable impact’were defined as the thresholds.Compared with the‘dangerousimpact’and the‘unacceptable impact’,NPP loss in each grid was used to evaluate the risk on the ecosystems in farming-pastoralecotone in northern China.The results showed that,climate change will bring risk on primary production of ecosystem in the studyarea,and the low risk will dominate the region.The risk distribution is likely to correlated with climate change in future,risk areasare likely to be concentrated on northern part of Northwest China,northeast part of Inner Mongolia,central and southern part ofNortheast China.The risk areas would expand with the increase of warming degree.To the long-term,about165.72Mha ecosystemswill face the risk on primary production,accounting for44.78%of the total area.Temperate mixed forest,wooded savanna and desertgrassland are likely to be more vulnerable than other ecosystems,while the alpine meadow and evergreen coniferous forest will berelatively safe.Risks in the core region of the farming-pastoral ecotone will intense than these in the marginal region,indicating thedangerous trend under the climate change.

关 键 词：阈值 气候变化 风险 生产功能 北方农牧交错带 

分 类 号：K903[历史地理—人文地理学] X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]