IPCC共享社会经济路径下中国和分省人口变化预估  

National and Provincial Population Projected to 2100 Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in China

作　　者：姜彤[1,2] 赵晶[1] 景丞 曹丽格[2] 王艳君[1] 孙赫敏 王安乾[3,4] 黄金龙[3,4] 苏布达[1,2,3] 王润[5] Jiang Tong;Zhao Jing;Jing Cheng;Cao Lige;Wang Yanjun;Sun Hemin;Wang Anqian;Huang Jinlong;Su Buda;Wang Run(Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049, China;School of Resources and Environmental Science, Hubei University, Wuhan 430062, China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同中心/地理与遥感学院,南京210044 [2]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081 [3]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830011 [4]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [5]湖北大学资源和环境学院,武汉430062

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2017年第2期128-137,共10页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41571494);中国气象局气候变化创新团队项目

摘　　要：基于2010年第六次中国人口普查数据,采用IPCC发布的可持续发展(SSP1)、中度发展(SSP2)、局部或不一致发展(SSP3)、不均衡发展(SSP4)、常规发展(SSP5)这5种共享社会经济路径,率定人口-发展-环境分析(PDE)模型中的人口生育率、死亡率、迁移率、教育水平等参数,对2011—2100年中国和31个省(区/市)人口变化进行预估。结果表明:1)不同SSP路径下,中国人口均呈先增加后减少的趋势,在高气候变化挑战的SSP3路径下人口最多,于2035年达到峰值,约14.27亿;在以适应挑战为主的SSP4路径下,人口出现最小值7.02亿。2)SSP1、SSP4和SSP5路径下人均寿命长,人口老龄化严重,其中SSP1和SSP5路径下人均教育水平高,到2100年教育水平在大学以上人口约占总人口的60%;SSP2路径下各年龄段分布比较均衡;SSP3路径下新生人口数量较多,劳动力充足,但教育水平较低。3)到2100年,SPP3路径下广西人口呈现最大值1.13亿,在其他路径下广东人口最多,达1.29亿。This paper focused on the projection of national and provincial population in China, using Population- Development-Environment (PDE) model under the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Population parameters in the Model PDE were set up by using the 6th national census including fertility, mortality, migration and education in China. the populations of 31 provinces including autonomous regions and municipalities in China for 2011-2100 were projected according to present situation and Two-Child Policy. The results show that China's population will raise up to 2035 and then decline until 2100 under five shared socioeconomic pathways. Under SSP3, which facing high climate change challenges, peak population shown in 2035 will be 1.43 billion. The minimum population will be found about 0.70 billion under SSP4. Under SSP1, SSP4 and SSP5, average life expectancy will be relatively high, and population aging will be serious. More than 60% of population under SSP1 and SSP5 account for higher educated population above university level. Under SSP2, the population at different ages will be similar numbers. More new-born population and adequate labor will be encouraged with a low education level under SSP3. By 2100, maximum numbers of population reaching 113 million will be found in the Guangxi province under SSP3. Except SSP3, population in the Guangdong province will have 129 million reaching to maximum numbers of population. A rapid population growth at provinces under SSP3 will attribute to high fertility, low economic level and high population outflow, comparing with other pathways .

关 键 词：气候变化 人口预估 共享社会经济路径(SSPs) 省(区/市) 中国 

分 类 号：C964.2[经济管理—人力资源管理]