考虑电能替代的湖北省新常态电力需求预测  

Forecast of Hubei Power Consumption in the New Normal Considering Electricity Substitution

作　　者：童雅芳[1] 丁珩[1] 周小兵[1] TONG Yafang;DING Heng;ZHOU Xiaobing(Economic & Technology Research Institute of State Grid Hubei Electric Power Company, Wuhan Hubei 430077, China)

机构地区：[1]国网湖北省电力公司经济技术研究院,湖北武汉430077

出　　处：《湖北电力》2017年第2期33-37,共5页Hubei Electric Power

摘　　要：概括了经济发展新常态下湖北经济运行以及电力消费呈现出的阶段特征;对新常态下影响电力增长的主要因素进行分析预测,并对湖北省内经济发展、产业结构、城镇化进程、能源效率、电能替代等进行"十三五"远景展望;针对新常态下电力需求的新特征,提出电力需求预测方法的新思考,采取能够体现新常态特征的预测方法对"十三五"湖北省用电需求进行预测。The stage characteristics of economy and power consumption in the new normal econom?ic development are summarized in this paper.The main factors affecting the power consumption un?der the new normal conditions are analyzed and forecasted,and the economic development,industri?al structure,urbanization process,energy efficiency,and energy substitution in Hubei from2016to2020are forecasted.In view of the new characteristics of power demand in the new normalcy,newthought on power demand forecasting method is put forward.Finally,a forecasting method consider?ing new normalcy features is used to forecast the power Consumption in Hubei from2016to2020.

关 键 词：新常态 城镇化 电能替代 多元线性回归 电力需求预测 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济] F224