21世纪以来天津细颗粒物气象扩散能力趋势分析  

The trends of fine particulate meteorological diffusivity in Tianjin form 21th

作　　者：蔡子颖[1,2] 姚青 韩素芹[2] 邱晓滨[2] 张敏 CAI Zi-ying;HAN Su-qin;Qiu Xiao-bin;ZHANG Min;YAO Qing(Tianjin Environmental Meteorological Center, Tianjin 300074, China;Tianjin Institute of Meteorology, Tianjin 300074, China)

机构地区：[1]天津市环境气象中心,天津300074 [2]天津市气象科学研究所,天津300074

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2017年第6期2040-2046,共7页China Environmental Science

基　　金：环保公益行业专项(201409001);国家科技支撑计划(2014BAC23B01);天津市气象局课题(201704ybxm04)

摘　　要：基于高精度的排放源和大气化学模式WRF/chem,在同排放源条件下模拟了2000~2015年天津地区PM_(2.5)质量浓度,根据NECP再分析资料和地面观测相关数据构建细颗粒物气象扩散指数,使用两种方法描述21世纪以来天津地区细颗粒物气象扩散能力变化趋势.研究结果表明:2000~2015年期间天津地区细颗粒气象扩散能力呈现周期性波动,不利气象条件的第一个峰值出现在2003~2004年,第二个峰值为2013~2015年,两个峰值相距11年,在2000~2015年间,天津地区气象扩散能力(主要针对PM_(2.5)影响)年际平均波动4.1%,最大值约为9%,对于大气污染防治目标制定和效果评估,必须考虑气象年际波动的影响;2008~2010年气象条件较有利于细颗粒物扩散,此后逐年转差,在2013~2015年处于历史正距平(不利扩散),从而导致2013~2015年雾霾和重污染天气频发;2015年相比2013年天津细颗粒物气象扩散能力没有明显提高,但PM_(2.5)质量浓度下降29%,大气污染防治措施的有效执行在其中发挥积极作用.Two method was used to analysis the trend of meteorological diffusivity for fine particulate in Tianjin since2000.Oneis simulating PM2.5mass concentration by WRF/chem in Tianjin from2000to2015with same high precision emission.Theother is analyzing a fine particulate meteorological diffusion index constructing from NCEP data and ground observation.Thereis an obviously periodic fluctuation of meteorological diffusivity for fine particulate from2000to2015.There are two peak oflow meteorology diffusivity.The first one is from2003to2004and another is from2013to2015.There are11yearsinterval between the two peaks.The inter annual variability for meteorological diffusivity of fine particulate has a averaged4.1%value and max9%value.The inter annual variability must be considered for atmospheric pollution control and evaluation.Thegood meteorological diffusivity for fine particulate is from2008to2010.After that,the meteorological diffusivity get worseyear by year and reach peak value from2013to2015which causing the frequently haze and heavy pollution weather.Comparingwith2013,the observed PM2.5mass concentration decreased29%on2015with same meteorological diffusivity.It implies thatthe atmospheric pollution control method worked effectively.comprehensive meteorological diffusion function,described thechange tendency of the21st century polluted meteorological conditions.The result showed:The polluted meteorologicalconditions Showed the cycle fluctuation form2000to2015,the first peak of adverse weather conditions was2003~2004,thesecond peak of adverse weather conditions was2013~2015,the apart of two peaks was11years.Inter annual fluctuation of Thepolluted meteorological conditions(mainly for PM2.5)was about4.1%,the maximum was about9%,The goal and effect ofatmospheric pollution control was set,meteorological cycle fluctuations must be considered.Polluted meteorological conditionswas conducive to atmospheric pollutants diffusion from2008to2010,then turn worse year by year,which led to haze and heavypollution weather frequent f

关 键 词：WRF/CHEM 细颗粒物气象扩散能力 天津 

分 类 号：X131.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X515