京津冀产业结构与就业结构的演变趋势分析--以河北省为例的实证分析  

Evolution Trend of Industrial Structure and Employment Structure in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei——An Empirical Analysis of Hebei Province

作　　者：段亚敏 郑艳 李华中 DUAN Ya-min;LI Hua-zhong;ZHENG Yan(Hebei GEO Unversity, Shijazhuang, Hebei　050031;Hebei GEO Unversity, Shijazhuang, Hebei　050031)

机构地区：[1]河北地质大学研究生学院,河北石家庄050031 [2]河北地质大学组织部,河北石家庄050031

出　　处：《河北地质大学学报》2017年第3期103-108,共6页Journal of Hebei Geo University

基　　金：2016年度河北省社科基金项目“京津冀协同发展视角下河北省产业结构与就业结构协调发展研究”(HB16YJ024)

摘　　要：论文依据京津冀三地1985年—2014年产业结构与就业结构的成分数据,并以河北省为例进行实证,通过成分数据降维,构建灰色GM(1,1)模型对京津冀三地及整体2015年—2020年的产业结构与就业结构的演变趋势进行分析,研究结果显示:北京、天津的产业结构与就业结构将呈"三、二、一"的发展格局,而河北省就业结构变动速度将超越产业结构调整速度,呈现"三、二、一"的格局,河北省第三产业将吸引更多的劳动力,但与京津仍有较大差距。就京津冀整体而言,京津冀产业发展已初步进入了工业化发展的后期阶段,但京津冀三地之间发展呈现不均衡态势。京津冀协同均衡发展不应各自为政,而京津地区应积极带动河北省产业发展,以实现协调发展。Based on the compositional data of the industrial structure and the employment structure in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from1985to2014,and taking Hebei province as an example,the nonlinear dimension reduction isused to reduce dimensions of compositional data,the GM(1,1)model is used to analyze the developing trend andfuture status of industrial structure and employment structure of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in2015-2020.The resultsshow that:the industrial structure and employment structure in Beijing and Tianjin will be a development pattern of“Tertiary,Secondary,Primary”,while the employment structure in Hebei will be beyond the adjustment of industrialstructure,and it also will be a same pattern as Beijing,the Tertiary industry in Hebei will attract more labors,butit will still exit a large gap;as a whole,the development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has entered the later stage ofindustrialization,but it presents unbalanced.The collaborative development should not be fragmented,and in orderto realize the coordinated development,Beijing and Tianjin should drive the industry in Hebei actively.

关 键 词：京津冀 产业结构 就业结构 成分数据 GM(1 1)模型 

分 类 号：F292[经济管理—国民经济]