中国淘汰短链氯化石蜡的社会经济影响评价  

Socio-economic Impact Assessment of Phasing out SCCPs in China

作　　者：余梦琪 王梓元[1] 王滢[2] 徐淳[1] 张剑波[1] YU Mengqi;WANG Ziyuan;WANG Ying;XU Chun;ZHANG Jianbo(Collaborative Innovation Center for Regional Environmental Quality, State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871;Foreign Economic Cooperation Office, Ministry of Environmental Protection, Beijing 100035)

机构地区：[1]北京大学环境科学与工程学院,区域环境质量协同创新中心,环境模拟与污染控制国家重点联合实验室,北京100871 [2]环境保护部环境保护对外合作中心,北京100035

出　　处：《北京大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第4期710-714,共5页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis

基　　金：环保公益性行业科研专项(201209020)资助

摘　　要：利用成本效益分析法,设置5年和10年淘汰情景,对中国淘汰短链氯化石蜡(SCCPs)的成本和效益进行分析。淘汰SCCPs的成本为181.1~308.8亿元,主要来自下游行业替代损失,5年淘汰情景的成本低于10年淘汰情景;中国淘汰SCCPs的收益为1462.6亿元,建议采用5年淘汰情景淘汰SCCPs。The costs and benefits of phasing out short chain chlorinated paraffins(SCCPs)in China were analyzed under the5-year and10-year control scenarios by cost benefit analysis.The cost of phasing out SCCPs was18.11to30.88billion yuan,mainly from the substitution in downstream industries.The cost under the5-year control scenario was less than the10-year scenario.The benefit of phasing out SCCPs in China was146.26billion yuan.The5-year control scenario was suggested for phasing out SCCPs.

关 键 词：短链氯化石蜡 社会经济影响评价 成本效益分析 

分 类 号：F406.7[经济管理—产业经济] F426.7[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X196