不同排放情景下鄂尔多斯沙漠化风险预估  

Risk Prediction of Desertification under Different Emission Scenarios in Ordos

作　　者：耿怡颖 丁文广[1] 刘兴德 徐浩[1] 赵晨[1] GENG Yiying;DING Wenguang;LIU Xingde;XU Hao;ZHAO Chen(College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University;Key Laboratory of West China’ Environmental System(Ministry of Education),Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学资源环境学院西部环境教育部重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2017年第4期70-77,共8页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BAC19B09)资助

摘　　要：气候变化可以对沙漠化的扩张和逆转产生影响,综合预估未来多气候情景下沙漠化风险是制定防沙治沙策略的基础依据。基于鄂尔多斯1981—2015年NDVI数据和气候数据,利用最小二乘法对各年NDVI值、年降水量和年积温构成的时间序列进行线性倾向估计,对每个像元的值进行线性回归模型拟合,获取了未来35 a不同气候情景下的NDVI预测值,并在IPCC提出的4种气候变化情景下预测沙漠化风险状况,结果表明:(1)鄂尔多斯未来35 a沙漠化风险呈西北高、东南低的特点;(2)从气候变化情景看,在RCP8.5情景下,鄂尔多斯未来35 a的沙漠化风险最大,RCP6.0情景下风险最小;(3)从未来不同时期看,除RCP4.5情景外,未来15 a鄂尔多斯沙漠化风险最大,未来25~35 a沙漠化风险相对较小。Climate change can affect the expansion and reversion of desertification,and the prediction of desertification risk under future climate scenarios is the basis of the sand prevention policy.In this paper,NDVI and climate data during1981-2015in Ordos were analyzed,and the time series constituted by NDVI values,annual precipitation and annual accumulated temperature of each year were estimated by linear regression using least square method,and the values of each pixel were fitted by multiple linear regression equation.The predicted NDVI values of each period and climate change scenario in the next35years were obtained.Finally,predicted desertification risk was obtained based on four climate change scenarios by IPCC.The results showed that:1)The risk of desertification in Ordos was high in the northwest and low in the southeast;2)From different climate change scenarios,the highest of desertification risk occurred in scenario of RCP8.5,while the lowest risk appeared in scenario of RCP6.0;3)From different periods in the future,the highest desertification risk of Ordos occurred in the next15years and the lowest risk occurred in the next25to35years,except in the scenario of RCP4.5.

关 键 词：鄂尔多斯 沙漠化 NDVI 风险预测 

分 类 号：X171[环境科学与工程—环境科学]