中国碳减排政策效应的模拟分析与对比研究——兼论如何平衡经济增长与碳强度下降的双重目标  

Simulation analysis and comparative study on the effects of China's carbon reduction policy—On how to balance the dual goals of economic growth and carbon intensity reduction

作　　者：张同斌[1] 刘琳[1] ZHANG Tong-bin;LIU Lin(School of Economics,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学经济学院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2017年第9期3591-3600,共10页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71303035);国家社会科学基金重大项目(15ZDA011)

摘　　要：通过构建包含能源消耗,碳排放与碳减排政策的动态一般均衡模型,对碳总量减排与碳强度减排两类政策的减排效应与经济效应进行了模拟分析.结果显示,不同的碳减排政策均能够有效降低碳排放量,实现碳强度下降的目标,但由于政策的减排力度和减排路径差异原因,碳总量减排政策对经济增长的抑制作用较强,碳强度减排政策对经济增长的负向影响程度较低.基于社会福利和减排成本视角对不同碳减排政策的成本收益进行对比发现,与强度减排相比,总量减排方案下的社会福利更高且其减排成本略小,其具有一定的比较优势.促进碳强度减排政策向碳总量减排政策的稳步过渡,是实现福利增进与环境改善等多重红利的重要途径.By specifying a dynamic general equilibrium model including energy consumption,carbon emission and carbonemission reduction policies,a simulation analysis of both emission reduction effects and economic effects of carbon cappolicy and carbon intensity policy was performed.The results showed that different carbon reduction policies effectivelycontrolled carbon emission and achieved the goal of reducing carbon intensity.However,due to different policy strengthsand different paths taken in the policy,carbon cap reduction policy had a strong inhibitory effect on economic growthwhile the negative impact of carbon intensity reduction policy on economic growth was relatively weak.Furthermore,based on the perspectives of social welfare and emission reduction cost,a cost-benefit analysis of the different carbonemission reduction policies was done.The findings were that compared with the carbon intensity policy,the carbon cappolicy had comparative strengths in enhancing social welfare and lowering emission reduction cost.Thus,the transitionfrom carbon intensity policy to carbon cap policy was the key to welfare enhancement,environmental improvement andother dividends.

关 键 词：碳总量减排 碳强度减排 经济增长 动态一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]