基于折扣证据理论的应答器系统风险评估  

Risk assessment of balise system based on discount evidence theory

作　　者：张友鹏[1] 王亚惠 杨妮[1] ZHANG Youpeng;WANG Yahui;YANG Ni(School of Automatic & Electrical Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学自动化与电气工程学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2017年第9期1990-1997,共8页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：中国铁路总公司科技研究开发计划课题资助项目(2015X007-H)

摘　　要：针对应答器系统风险评估过程中存在较大模糊性和主观性等问题,提出基于熵权法和折扣证据理论的风险评估模型。识别评估对象的风险因素,判定各风险因素的风险等级,采用熵权法确定风险因素权重;利用模糊数学理论确定专家评语基本信度分配(BPA)函数,并运用折扣系数法修正证据理论,合成专家意见得到各风险因素的BPA函数;通过加权平均函数实现风险综合评判,依据最大隶属度原则确定风险等级。利用该评估模型对应答器系统进行风险评估,验证模型的可行性和有效性。To address the problems of fuzziness and subjectivity during the risk assessment on balise system,therisk assessment model based on entropy method and discount evidence theory is proposed.Firstly,the risk factorsare identified from the research subjects,the risk grade is determined,and the weight of each risk factor isdetermined by using entropy method;Then,the BPA function of expert reviews are determined by using the fuzzymathematics theory,the evidence theory is modified by applying the discounted coefficient method,and the expertopinions are synthesized to obtain the BPA function of each risk factor;Finally,the risk comprehensive evaluationis achieved by the weighting average function,and the risk level can be determined according to the maximummembership principle.Using the model to evaluate the balise system,it turned out that the evaluation model isfeasible and effective.

关 键 词：应答器系统 风险评估 熵权法 折扣证据理论 

分 类 号：U284[交通运输工程—交通信息工程及控制] X951[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]