基于贝叶斯网络-风险矩阵法的地下工程风险管理——既有建筑物地下空间开发工程中的动态风险管理  

Risk Management Method Based on Bayesian Network-Risk Matrix——Dynamic Risk Management of Excavation Project of Existing Buildings

作　　者：张骁 张雪辉 白云[1] ZHANG Xiao;ZHANG Xuehui;BAI Yun(Department of Geotechnical Engineering,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学土木工程学院,上海200092

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2017年第6期176-183,共8页Safety and Environmental Engineering

基　　金：上海市科学技术委员会科研计划项目(15DZ1204005)

摘　　要：针对既有建筑物地下空间开发工程的特点,采用贝叶斯网络-风险矩阵方法对工程动态风险管理进行研究。根据工程实际,全面辨识风险因素,建立贝叶斯节点,并以贝叶斯节点为基础,分析各风险因素之间的联系,建立节点间的网络;采用风险矩阵法,考察风险发生概率和风险事件损失,建立定量评价风险事件的标准;综合贝叶斯网络与风险矩阵,建立一套动态风险管理方法,并应用于上海市某地块既有建筑物地下空间开发工程,结果表明该方法能够有效地反映既有建筑物地下空间开发工程施工过程中的动态性,适用于该类工程的动态风险管理。With the characteristics of the underground space development project of existing buildings,this paper applies the Bayesian network risk matrix method to studying the dynamic risk management of projects.According to the engineering practice,the paper comprehensively identifies the risk factors,establishes the Bayesian nodes,and based on the Bayesian node analyzes the connection among the risk factors and establishes the network between nodes.The paper adopts the risk matrix method to study the risk probability and risk event loss,and establishes a set of dynamic risk management method and applies it to the underground space development project of a certain building in Shanghai City.The results show that the Bayesian network risk matrix method can effectively reflect the dynamic nature of engineering construction and is suitable for dynamic risk management.

关 键 词：既有建筑物 地下空间开发 贝叶斯网络 风险矩阵 动态风险管理 

分 类 号：X948[环境科学与工程—安全科学] X913.4