基于修正需用系数因子的居住用地负荷预测  

Load Forecasting for Residential Land Based on Demand Factor Method with Correction Coefficients

作　　者：叶云 孙洪波 彭卉 陈永刚 魏淑琼 YE Yun;SUN Hongbo;PENG Hui;CHEN Yonggang;WEI Shuqiong(Chongqing Electric Power Design Institute,Chongqing 401121,China;State Grid Chongqing Electric Power Company,Chongqing 400014,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆电力设计院,重庆401121 [2]国网重庆市电力公司,重庆400014

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2017年第12期130-134,共5页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

摘　　要：在《城市电力规划规范》中,居住用地负荷密度指标参考值区间大,取值主观性较大,实用性不高。将需用系数法引入规划阶段居民用地负荷预测中,推导出不同容积率规划地块的远景负荷密度指标,利用已成熟小区的历史负荷值对指标进行了修正,提出了基于修正需用系数因子法的规划区居住用地负荷预测方法。算例表明了该方法的高效性和工程实用性。Considering that the recommended range of load density for residential land in Code for Urban Electric Power Planning is too large,the adopted value is more subjective and thus has poor practicality.In this paper,demand factor method is introduced for the load forecasting of residential land in the planning stage.The indexes of perspective load density are derived,which are further modified by comparing the historical data from a mature community.In this way,a load forecasting method for planned residential land is proposed based on demand factor method with correction coefficients.A numerical example shows that the proposed method is effective and practical.

关 键 词：需用系数 同时率 容积率 负荷预测 负荷密度 

分 类 号：TM714[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]