基于交叉DEA-Tobit模型的我国各省(市)地质灾害易损性及其影响因素评价分析  

The Evaluation of Geological Disability Vulnerability and Its Influencing Factors in China's Provinces(Cities) Based on Cross DEA-Tobit Model

作　　者：孙浩[1] 杨桂元[1] SUN Hao;YANG Guiyuan(School of Statistics and Applied Maths,Anhui University of Finance and Economic,bengbu Anhui 233030,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《西华师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第4期450-455,共6页Journal of China West Normal University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(12BTJ008);安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金项目(ACYC2016113)

摘　　要：为了评估我国各地区的地质灾害易损性,采用DEA交叉模型与聚类分析从投入—产出的角度对其进行定量评价分析,并对我国各省(市)的易损性进行等级划分;为了进一步探究影响地质灾害易损性的潜在因素,在DEA交叉模型的基础上,建立了Tobit模型进行分析。研究发现,我国各省(市)地质灾害易损性受经济发展状况、科学技术水平和地形的影响非常明显。To evaluate the vulnerability of geological disasters in various regions of China,DEA cross model and cluster analysis are used to quantitatively evaluate the vulnerability of inputs and outputs,and to classify the vulnerability of provinces(cities).based on the DEA crossover model,the Tobit model is established for analyzing the potential factors that have affected the vulnerability of geological disasters.The study found that the geological disaster vulnerability of China’s various provinces(cities)is obviously influenced by its economic development,scientific and technical level as well as topography.

关 键 词：易损性 DEA交叉模型 聚类分析 TOBIT模型 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]