绵竹市2007～2016年水痘流行病学特征分析及GM(1,1)季节指数模型的预测应用  

Analysis of the Epidemiological Characteristics of Chickenpox in Mianzhu Between 2007 and 2016 and the Application of the GM(1,1) Seasonal Index Model in the Prediction of the Disease

作　　者：李小铭 王戈[2] 江珊 陈卫中[1] Li Xiaoming;Wang Ge;Jiang Shan;Chen Weizhong(Department of Public Health, Chengdu Medical College, Chengdu 610500, China;Mianzhu Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Mianzhu 618200, China)

机构地区：[1]成都医学院公共卫生系,成都610500 [2]绵竹市疾病预防控制中心,绵竹618200

出　　处：《成都医学院学报》2017年第6期747-750,共4页Journal of Chengdu Medical College

基　　金：成都医学院校科研基金项目(No:12Z027)

摘　　要：目的分析绵竹市2007~2016年水痘的流行特征及其流行病学规律,为预测与预防控制提供参考依据。方法利用绵竹市"中国免疫规划信息系统"中2007~2016年水痘发病患者资料,描述绵竹市水痘人群分布、地区分布和时间分布特征,并运用GM(1,1)季节指数模型预测2017年的发病数量。结果 2007~2016年共报告2 183例水痘患者,年平均报告发病率为45.7/10万。10年间整体发病呈下降趋势,发病呈明显季节性,每年5~7月、11月~次年1月为水痘高发季节。15岁患者占总报告人数的73.8%,其中,又以3~7岁为高发年龄段。职业以学生为主,占发病总数的48.9%,其次是幼托儿童和散居儿童,占发病总数的27.0%和10.4%。预测2017年水痘发病数量较2016年有所增加,4个季度分别为34、63、40、86人。结论绵竹市水痘发病呈现春末夏初和冬季两个高峰,3~7岁儿童为高危人群,2017年水痘病例可能会有少量增加,加强水痘监测和学校卫生监测工作仍然是预防水痘的重要工作。Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics and regularity of chickenpox in Mianzhu between2007and provide scientific references for effective prevention and control measures against chickenpox.Methods The data about the chickenpox patients of Mianzhu between2007and2016in Information System of National Immunization Program were analyzed to describe the population distribution,regional distribution and temporal distribution of chickenpox in Mianzhu and the GM(1,1)seasonal index model was used to predict the number of cases in2017.Results A total of2,183chickenpox cases were reported in Mianzhu between2007and2016with an average annual incidence rate of45.7out of100thousand.The overall incidence showed a downward trend with seasonal changes during the past decade.The peak months of the incidence were between May and July and between December and January of the following year.The patients aged15accounted for73.8%of all the reported patients and the high-risk age ranged from3to7.The students accounted for48.9%of all the reported patients,the nursery children accounted for27.0%,and the scattered children accounted for10.4%.The incidence of chickenpox in2017was predicted to be higher than that in2016and the case numbers of the four seasons was34,63,40and86respectively.Conclusion There are two peak periods of high chickenpox incidence in Mianzhu which are between late spring and early summer and during winter.The high-risk population is the children aged from3to7.The chickenpox incidence may increase a bit in2017and enhancing the surveillance of chickenpox and the monitoring of school health is still an important task in the prevention of chickenpox.

关 键 词：水痘 流行特征 GM(1 1) 季节指数模型 

分 类 号：R183.7[医药卫生—流行病学]