中国居民消费的特质波动及其福利效应  

Idiosyncratic Fluctuations of Chinese Resident Consumption and Its Welfare Effect

作　　者：张耿[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海外国语大学国际金融贸易学院,上海200083

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2018年第2期20-28,共9页Modern Economic Science

摘　　要：本文构建了一个居民消费存在特质波动的福利模型,据此估计了特质波动的福利成本。研究发现:首先,中国居民消费的特质波动福利成本比美国大得多,美国的特质波动不具有重要的福利意义,而中国的特质波动对社会福利有着重要的影响;其次,中国目前的特质波动中,绝大部分可以通过完善金融市场得以消除,其福利效应相当于消除四分之一的总量波动;最后,经济波动中的弱势群体福利受损明显,这部分群体的规模超过总人口的10%。这些发现表明特质波动对中国的社会福利是一个不应被忽视的因素,如能设法缓解跨地区和跨部门的波动不平衡问题,宏观政策就能更有效地提升社会福利。The article proposes a welfare model with idiosyncratic consumption volatility,and estimates the welfare cost of economic fluctuations.(1)The idiosyncratic volatility of China is more important than that of America.Unlike America,the welfare cost of Chinese economic fluctuations is significantly increased.(2)More than 80%percent of present idiosyncratic volatility in China can be smoothed by perfecting financial market.(3)The welfare of the disadvantaged groups in the economic fluctuation is damaged obviously,and the size of this part of the group is over 10%of the total population.These findings indicate that idiosyncratic fluctuation is a factor that should not be neglected for China’s social welfare.If we can try to mitigate the imbalance between trans regional and inter departmental fluctuations,macro policies can enhance effectively social welfare.

关 键 词：居民消费 特质波动 福利效应'总量风险 特质风险 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济]