基于距离曲线和交通阻抗的交通量联合预测  

Joint Prediction of Traffic Volume Based on Distance Curve and Traffic Impedance

作　　者：姚宏伟 YAO Hong-wei(Liaoning Provincial Communication Planning Design Institute,Co.,Ltd.,Shenyang 110166,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁省交通规划设计院有限责任公司,沈阳市110166

出　　处：《北方交通》2018年第3期155-158,共4页Northern Communications

摘　　要：针对研究区域内各交通方式的交通量网络分配问题,创造性地采用了传统四阶段法与多方式一体化交通分配技术相结合的方法进行解决,通过对绥沈高速公路交通量预测可知,基于距离曲线的交通方式划分和分配联合预测与基于交通阻抗的综合交通路网分配预测,两种预测方法虽然理论依据完全不同,预测手段各有区分,预测所得的交通量略有不同,但在总体的发展趋势和客货的相对关系上是和谐统一的。因而,经过对两种预测方法所得的结果的检验与校核可知,两种方法均相对合理,结果相对可信,结论相对准确。Network traffic assignment problem for each mode of transport within the study area,this thesis creatively uses the method of integration of traffic assignment technology combined with the traditional four stage method and way to solve,the Suishen expressway traffic forecast indicates that,the transportation distance curve and partition the combined forecasting and prediction of comprehensive traffic network distribution the traffic impedance based on two kinds of prediction methods while the theoretical basis is completely different,prediction means each have distinction,the traffic volume forecast is slightly different,but in the overall development trend of the passenger and freight of relationship is harmonious and unified.Therefore,after checking and checking the results obtained from the two prediction methods,the two methods are relatively reasonable,and the results are relatively reliable,and the conclusion is relatively accurate.

关 键 词：四阶段法 距离曲线 交通阻抗 联合预测 

分 类 号：U491.113[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]