三峡库区卧沙溪滑坡稳定性的可靠度及敏感性分析  

Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis of Woshaxi Landslide Stability in Three Gorges Reservoir Area

作　　者：雷德鑫 易武[1,2,3] 柳青 夏俊宝[4] LEI Dexin;YI Wu;LIU Qing;XIA Junbao(National Field Observation and Research Station of Landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir area of Yangtze River,Yichang 443002,China;Collaborative Innovation Center for Geo-Hazard and Eco-Environment in Three Gorges Area,Yichang 443002,China;Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hubei Province,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002, China;Bureau of Land Resources of Xingshan Country,Xingshan 443700,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学湖北省长江三峡滑坡国家野外科学观测研究站,湖北宜昌443002 [2]三峡地区地质灾害与生态环境湖北省创新协同中心,湖北宜昌443002 [3]三峡大学湖北省防灾减灾重点实验室,湖北宜昌443002 [4]兴山县国土资源局,湖北兴山443700

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2018年第1期23-28,共6页Safety and Environmental Engineering

基　　金：湖北省科技支撑计划项目(2015BCE070);湖北省自然科学基金项目(2017CFB436);湖北省水电工程智能视觉监测重点实验室开放基金项目(2016KLA02)

摘　　要：三峡库区是滑坡地质灾害多发的地区,库水位周期性涨落与降雨的耦合作用是导致滑坡失稳破坏的主要原因。为深入研究库水位与降雨作用下滑坡的稳定性,以三峡库区卧沙溪滑坡为例,采用蒙特卡罗随机抽样法,分析了不同工况条件下滑坡的可靠度指标、失效概率,并分析了滑坡的稳定性系数对滑体物理力学参数(c、、γ)的敏感性。结果表明:卧沙溪滑坡具有典型动水压力型滑坡的特征,库水位下降速率越大,滑坡可靠度指标越低,当叠加暴雨工况时,滑坡的失效概率明显增大;滑坡的稳定性系数对滑体的内摩擦角最敏感,黏聚力c次之,重度γ最小,且与滑体的内摩擦角、黏聚力c呈正相关关系,与滑体重度γ呈负相关关系,库水位下降速率越大,滑坡的稳定性系数与滑体重度γ的负相关性越强,不利于滑坡的稳定。Landslides are the main disaster in Three Gorges Reservoir area.Numerous research has shown that coupling of periodical fluctuates of reservoir water level and rainfall are the key factors of the landslide failure.To further study the landslide stability with the effect of reservoir water level and rainfall,taking Woshaxi landslide as an example,this paper applies the method of Monte Carlo random sampling to analyzing the reliability,failure probability and sensitivity of the landslide under different conditions.The results reveal that Wosahxi landslide holds typical characteristics of hydrodynamic pressure slide,namely,the higher speed of drawdown of reservoir water level,the lower reliability of landslide.In the rainstorm condition,failure probability increases evidently.The safety factor is the most sensitive to the internal friction angel?,followed by the cohesion c and the gravity densityγ.Also it’s positive correlated with?and c,and negative correlated withγ.The greater of drawdown rate of the reservoir water level is,the stronger the negative correlation is between the safety factor andγof the landslide,which does not benefit the stability of landslide.

关 键 词：卧沙溪滑坡 蒙特卡罗随机抽样法 可靠度分析 失效概率 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]