边境调节税、美国税制改革及其影响分析  

The Border Tax Adjustment, Tax Reform of the U.S. and Its Impacts

作　　者：肖汉雄 杨丹辉[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院研究生院工业经济系 [2]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所

出　　处：《区域与全球发展》2017年第2期96-112,158,共17页Area Studies and Global Development

基　　金：国家发展改革委课题"美国制造业回归可能性及应对之策研究";中国社会科学院创新工程项目"中国工业绿色发展研究"(SKCX201601)

摘　　要：美国现行税制存在条文繁杂、结构不完善、税率高企等诸多问题。尽管近年来美国多次进行税收改革,但未能从根本革除上述弊端。为促进制造业回流、拉动投资、增加就业,一些美国学者和政治领袖主张对所得税进行边境调节,并以此作为提升全球化条件下美国税制竞争力、优化美国税制的长远之策。本文通过分析边境调节税的作用机制,比较特朗普执政前后提出的税改方案,指出边境调节税具有改善税收结构、促进投资等积极作用,但也将在一定程度上挤压部分产业的利润空间,引发汇率波动。尽管边境调节税是共和党在大规模减税下实现平衡预算的有力手段,但这一税改方向也面临着背离WTO规则以及美国各级政府之间税制协调的风险与困难,而国内政治博弈也将推高美国税制改革的成本。为应对美国税收改革对中国出口及吸引外资带来的影响和冲击,应加快产业转型升级,以供给侧结构性改革带动国内税制完善。同时,加强国际协调,积极开拓新兴市场,不断增强全球治理能力。This paper points out that the U.S. tax system has disadvantages such as complexity, incompleteness and high tax rate. These problems have never been entirely fixed in spite of frequent tax reforms. In order to attract more investment and promote economic growth, some scholars have, together with American political leaders, proposed to impose border adjustment on corporate income tax as a long-term strategy to improve the U.S. tax system. Our analysis of the working mechanism of the border tax adjustment as well as a comparison of the different versions of US tax reform plans proposed before and afer Trump came to power, makes clear that although the border tax has helped improve the tax structure and attract investment, it risks running against the WTO rules. Besides, it will to some extent squeeze the profit margin of some industries and exacerbate exchange rate fluctuation. In response to the challenges and impacts of U.S. tax reform on China's exports and attracting FDI, this paper suggests that China speed up the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure and improve the domestic tax system under the supply-side structural reform. It is also nessary to strengthen international coordination with the implementation of export market diversification strategy under the Belt and Road Initiative so as to continuously enhance China's global governance capacity.

关 键 词：美国经济 税制改革 边境调节税 中美贸易 

分 类 号：F11[经济管理—国际贸易]