基于城市样本的中国城市化与碳排放相关性实证研究  

Empirical Study on Correlation between Carbon Emission and China′s Urbanization Based on City Samples

作　　者：刘明达[1] 尤南山 刘碧寒 LIU Mingda;YOU Nanshan;LIU Bihan(China Center for Information Industry Development,Beijing 100048;College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871;Beijing Development and Reform Commission,Beijing 100043,China)

机构地区：[1]中国电子信息产业发展研究院,北京100048 [2]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871 [3]北京市发展与改革委员会,北京100043

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2018年第2期73-78,共6页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41371097)"水资源约束下黑河中游土地利用的生态适应性研究"

摘　　要：城市化过程与碳排放部门的空间集聚相伴,对碳排放有着显著且日趋强烈的影响,但目前还缺少基于小样本尺度、大样本容量的计量模型,以深度揭示二者之间的联系渠道。该文以市级尺度样本为基础,利用空间分析方法模拟构建中国城市化与碳排放之间的计量关系模型,并进行稳健性检验和渠道分析。结果表明:中国城市化与碳排放之间至少在产业结构、城市建设和第三产业发展3个维度上存在相关关系,三者的影响力依次递减,也反映了过去10多年来我国工业化进程、城市基础设施建设和交通运输压力日益增长对城市碳排放的影响。考虑碳减排实践的政策设计时,也应针对上述3个层面,推动产业结构转型、发展绿色建筑和打造智能绿色交通。同时,研究工作也证明了空间分析方法因其擅长应对区域范围较大而基础数据尺度较小的研究对象,能更好地处理内部空间差异,而在经济社会研究方面具有独到优势。With the spatial agglomeration of sources,urbanization begins to have significantly and increasingly strong effects on carbon emission.But because of lacking in measurement model of small-scale and large-capacity samples,the current researches have not gone deeply into the relationship between urbanization and carbon emission.In this paper,a correlation empirical model between carbon emission and China′s urbanization based on city samples was build by using spatial analysis methods,robustness test and channel analysis.The results indicate that correlation between carbon emission and China′s urbanization exists in at least three aspects:industrial structure,urban construction and traffic,which are descending successively.Even more aspects will be found if the independent and dependent variables are expanded.It can also reflects the effect of industrialization,urban infrastructure construction and the increasingly pressure on traffic to urbanization.The three aspects should also be regarded when designing carbon emission reduction policies,which include changing industry structure,developing green building and developing green intelligent transportation.This research also proves that because of not only good at handling the objects which is large in scope and small in scale,but also good at analyzing the internal differentiation,the spatial analysis has advantage in social and economic study.

关 键 词：城市样本 城市化 碳排放 空间分析 实证研究 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F291.1[经济管理—国民经济]