华北地区ENSO年夏冬两季月降水量的时间序列模拟分析  

Simulation for Time Series of Monthly Precipitation in Summer and Winter during ENSO Period in North China

作　　者：马黎华[1] MA Lihua(College of Resources and Environment,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China)

机构地区：[1]西南大学资源环境学院,重庆400715

出　　处：《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第2期69-73,共5页Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51509214)

摘　　要：ENSO现象的发生往往带来区域降水量的改变,在分析了历年ENSO年夏、冬两季月降水量变化的基础上,利用时间序列ARIMA模型对其进行了模拟与预测。结果表明:1970—2016年共有11次ENSO事件;ENSO事件发生年华北地区月降水量夏季偏少、冬季偏多;同时,季节月降水量与INO指数的相关性呈现减弱趋势;最适合华北地区ENSO年季节性月降水量模拟的时间序列模型是ARIMA(1,1,2)_(12),对未来两次ENSO事件当年夏、冬两季月降水量的预测结果与近3次ENSO年的降水变化情况类似,与多年平均水平相比,华北地区ENSO年夏、冬两季月降水量略有减少,其中夏季月降水量减少明显。影响区域性降水量的因素复杂,在全球气候变化极端天气频发的背景下,研究结论可为预测性ENSO年的区域性降水量估计提供一种研究思路和分析方法。ENSO always changes the area precipitation.On the basis of analyzing the variation of monthly precipitation in summer and winter during ENSO period,the ARIMA model was used to simulate and predication.Results show that:there are 11 ENSO events from 1970 to 2016;the monthly precipitation in summer season becomes less and in winter more during the ENSO years;the correlation between seasonal monthly precipitation and INO index shows a decreasing trend;ARIMA(1,1,2)12 is the optimal model chosen to simulate seasonal monthly precipitation during ENSO period in North China;the prediction of the winter and summer monthly precipitation in next two ENSO events shows the similarity to the variation of precipitation in last 3 ENSO years;in the comparison with mean annual precipitation,the summer and winter monthly precipitationin ENSO years decreases slightly,and the reduction in summer is significant.Considering the complexity of factors impacting the regional precipitation,the conclusion will provide a research approach and an analytical method in the prediction of regional precipitation in ENSO years,in the background of the global climate change and the frequent occurrence of extreme weather.

关 键 词：ENS0年 ARIMA模型 降水量 华北地区 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P338[天文地球—水文科学]