基于GIS的神农架林区多灾种耦合综合风险评估  

Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Multi-hazard Coupling in Shennongjia Forest Region Based on GIS

作　　者：王望珍[1] 张可欣 陈瑶 WANG Wang-zhen;ZHANG Ke-xin;CHEN Yao(School of Civil Engineering,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学土木建筑工程学院,武汉430072

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2018年第5期49-54,110,共7页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题(2014BAL05B00)

摘　　要：为有效整治神农架林区山洪灾害,在考虑多灾种耦合规则下的危险性修正后,结合区域易损性评估构建了针对洪水、泥石流、滑坡、崩塌等村镇常发灾害的综合风险评估模型,通过风险矩阵以及Borda序值评价了研究区的综合风险,最后基于GIS技术得到了研究区的综合风险分布情况。结果表明,神农架林区高风险区主要分布在神农架的西部绝大部分地区、中部和东北部局部地区;低风险区主要位于林区东南部,评价结果与该区域山洪灾害实际情况较为吻合。In order to effectively renovate the mountain torrent disasters in Shennongjia forest area,a comprehensive risk assessment model for floods,debrisflow,landslides and slide is established in combination with the regional vulnerability assessment after considering the risk correction under the multi-hazard coupling rule.The comprehensive risk of the study area is evaluated by the risk matrix and the Borda order value.Finally,the comprehensive risk profile of the study area is obtained based on the GIS technology.The results show that the high risk area of Shennongjia forest area is mainly distributed in the vast areas of the western part of Shennongjia,the central and northeastern parts of China.The low risk area is mainly located in the southeastern part of the forest area.The evaluation result is consistent with the actual situation of the mountain torrent disaster in the area.

关 键 词：多灾种风险 风险评估 耦合 GIS 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]