我国上市公司杠杆错估及其关联效应——对“去杠杆”政策的思考  

Leverage Misestimation of Listed Companies in China and Its Correlation Effect——A Thought of “Deleveraging” Policy

作　　者：王贞洁[1,2] 王竹泉 WANG Zhen-jie;WANG Zhu-quan(Management College,Ocean University of China,Qingdao,Shandong,266000,China;China Business Working Capital Management Research Center,Qingdao,Shandong,266000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学管理学院,山东青岛266000 [2]中国企业营运资金管理研究中心,山东青岛266000

出　　处：《经济管理》2018年第4期20-35,共16页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"利益相关者视角的营运资金管理研究及中国上市公司营运资金管理数据平台扩充建设"(71372111);国家自然科学基金项目"基于金融生态环境视角的上市公司技术创新投资行为研究"(71302003);山东省社会科学规划研究项目"供给侧改革背景下金融资源再配置问题研究"(18CGLJ11)

摘　　要：由于对"资产"和"资本"概念的混淆,现有研究基于总资产计算的名义杠杆系统性地高估了企业的杠杆水平,进而高估了杠杆对实体经济可能产生的负面影响。本文以2007-2016年的A股上市公司作为样本,在系统度量了基于总资产计算的名义杠杆可能产生的错估之后,发现虽然表面上基于总资产计算的名义杠杆会加重我国上市公司的过度投资或投资不足问题,致使企业削减研发投入规模并增加企业陷入财务困境的概率。但如果将对于杠杆的错估考虑进来的话,名义杠杆的负面影响会在很大程度上被抵消。这意味着名义上的"去杠杆"并非是优化我国上市公司投资结构、促进创新动力提升的灵丹妙药,所以我国政府在运用"去杠杆"等政策工具进行调控时,应该削减基于总资本计算的真实杠杆水平,而非降低基于总资产计算的名义杠杆水平,这样才能达到预期的调控效果。In recent years,high leverage has become the cause of the irrational structure of the financial and substantive economic structure,and is even considered to be the source of all crises.The existing research finds that,on the one hand,the nominal leverage based on based on the calculation of total assets will highlight the“asset substitution”effect,exacerbate the risk preference of shareholders and intensify the problem of fixed asset overinvestment.On the other hand,it will increase the probability of a company s financial distress and induce shareholders to give up efforts to enhance the company s long-term value,making the company present a tendency of lack of R&D power and underinvestment in fixed assets.It is worth noting that these conclusions are based on the misestimation of leverage.Because of the confusion of the concept of“assets”and“capital”,the nominal leverage of the existing research based on based on the calculation of total assets systematically overestimates the level of enterprise leverage.It exaggerates the effect of“asset substitution”and“debtoverhang”caused by leverage,and then overestimates the possible positive significance of the“deleveraging”policy.Taking 2007-2016 years of A share listed companies as samples,this paper constructs a nominal leverage based on the calculation of total assets,the real leverage based on the calculation of total capital and a misestimation index based on the difference between the two.It is found that nominal leverage is positively correlated with overinvestment and underinvestment scale;it is negatively correlated with R&D investment scale and positively related to the probability of financial distress.However,the degree of leverage miscalculation is negatively correlated with the scale of overinvestment and underinvestment,and positively related to the scale of R&D investment,and negatively related to the probability of enterprises falling into financial distress.This means that the traditional index system systematically overestimate

关 键 词：“去杠杆” 名义杠杆 过度投资 财务困境 

分 类 号：F276.5[经济管理—企业管理]