定金预售模式下网络零售商定金与订货量决策研究  

Research on the Decision of Deposite and Order Quantity of Online Retailer of Advance Sale Mode

作　　者：储红艳 张钦红 CHU Hongyan;ZHANG Qinhong(Sino-US Global Logistics Institute,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200030,China)

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学中美物流研究院,上海200030

出　　处：《上海管理科学》2018年第2期70-76,共7页Shanghai Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71372107)

摘　　要：本文以国内网购市场普遍应用的定金预售为背景,研究网络零售商的产品订货与定金数额决策问题。首先,分析无定金预售策略时网络零售商在随机需求下的最优订货决策;随后,通过构建两阶段决策模型,分析了定金预售与现货销售模式并存时效用异质的消费者定金预订、预订取消及现货购买三种行为,进而求解零售商第一阶段的定金数额及第二阶段的订货量;最后,通过数值分析进一步阐述了模型结论和决策变量对关键参数的敏感性。结论表明,商品的价值越高,定金预售模式的期望利润比正常销售模式更具优势;而定金预售的需求信息更新作用,有利于零售商获取更高利润;此外,消费者价值越分散,取消预订的消费者越多,因而不利于定金预售模式。Advance selling with part payment called deposit gains popularity in the domestic internet market.In the background,this article analyzes deposit-pricing and ordering decisions for an online retailer.Firstly,we build the retailer?s optimal ordering decision under stochastic demand without advance selling.?Afterwards,we build the two-stage decision-making model and consider two strategic options for the retailer,namely,no advance-selling allowed and advance selling with part payment.We derive the retailers optimal deposit-pricing and ordering policies facing the consumers with heterogeneous utility who may reserve,cancel reservation or purchase the good in the spot sales period.Finally,numerical analysis is given to verify the model conclusions?and decision variables?sensitivity to the key parameters.The results show that:(1)Advance selling with part payment has an advantage over normal selling in profit when the value of goods is higher;(2)Demand information updating can help retailers get higher profits;(3)The more the distribution of consumers?valuation decentralized,the more the number of customers who unsubscribe,which against the advance selling with part payment.

关 键 词：预售 订货 定金 随机需求 消费者价值不确定 

分 类 号：F270[经济管理—企业管理]