驱动班轮业变革的将是技术而非整合  

Tech, not consolidation, will drive container shipping change

作　　者：Peter Tirschwell 

机构地区：[1]不详

出　　处：《中国远洋海运》2018年第3期76-76,9,共1页Maritime China

摘　　要：集运业可能会发生变化，但驱动因素将是技术革命而不是行业整合；迄今为止出现的相关证据是，行业整合减少了班轮公司数量，但没有改变他们的运营行为。例如，没有迹象表明市场竞争减弱。在短暂停顿后，各大班轮公司已经重新开始超大货轮订购。麦肯锡公司(McKinsey)在最近发布（但又很快撤回）的一份白皮书中颇有争议地指出，运力过剩“将会长期存在”。区块链——下一个伟大发明？但是，可能具有历史意义的好运正在降临!在航运业进行整合的同时，出现了有人认为将会改变世界的下一个突破性技术：分布式账本，即区块链。尽管这种技术有待发展，而且可能需要多年时间才能实现，但人类首次有望找出一条大幅降低全球贸易相关成本的途径。As container shipping has consolidated from 18 east-west carriers down to 11 during the past two years, it is easy to say the industry is experiencing an inflection point and will look very different in the future. The industry may look different, but that will be due to a revolution in technology, not to consolidation; the evidence so far is that consolidation has reduced the number of carriers but has not changed behaviors. There is no evidence, for example, that markets are any less competitive. Carriers have returned to mega-ship ordering after a brief hiatus, and, as consultancy Mc Kinsey controversially said in a recent white paper(that it quickly withdrew), overcapacity "is here to stay." Without question, achieving neutrality and resulting buy-in will be the difference between the industry being able to seize this unique opportunity or not. The prize is so big that it is imperative that individual carriers see participation in a common platform as non-competitive. If just a narrow slice of the industry joins the environment, they may succeed in reducing some costs, but the overall result will be elimination of only a fraction of the costs that would be possible through universal adoption by carriers, forwarders, shippers, ports, and government agencies. The large number of initial coin offerings in shipping is already pointing to a siloed future. How many times has it been said that nothing has changed since Malcom Mc Lean's introduction of the container in the late 1950 s? It is time that the industry that revolutionized global trade more than 50 years ago do it all over again.

关 键 词：行业整合 技术革命 班轮业 变革 班轮公司 麦肯锡公司 市场竞争 运力过剩 

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