边坡风险评价动态模型的构建及其应用  

Establishment and application of dynamic model for slope risk evaluation

作　　者：赵博[1,2] 张翛[2] 元天宇 ZHAO Bo;ZHANG Xiao;YUAN Tian-yu(College of Architecture and Civil Engineering,Taiyuan University of Technology,Taiyuan 030024,China;Key Laboratory of Highway Construction and Maintenance Technology of Ministry of Transport in Loess Region,Shanxi Transportation Research Institute,Taiyuan 030006,China)

机构地区：[1]太原理工大学建筑与土木工程学院,太原030024 [2]山西省交通科学研究院黄土地区公路建设与养护技术交通行业重点实验室,太原030006

出　　处：《沈阳工业大学学报》2018年第2期229-234,共6页Journal of Shenyang University of Technology

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2017M611199);太原理工大学青年基金资助项目(2015QN026);太原理工大学引进人才科研启动基金资助项目(tyut-rc201518a);太原理工大学大创基金资助项目(17067)

摘　　要：针对现有风险评价方法中的缺陷,结合物元可拓法和马尔科夫链法,从风险的概念出发,提出了一种新的边坡风险评价模型,构建风险矩阵完成从定性到定量的集成评价,将现场监测数据纳入到风险评价体系中,动态追踪和预测边坡风险变化的规律和趋势.该方法在充分认识风险的本质和相互联系后,对边坡系统的整体风险进行了动态分析,结果表明,该方法提高了风险评价结果的时效性和可靠性,预测结果也更加准确客观,具有良好的实际应用价值.Aiming at the defects in the existing risk assessment methods,a new model for slope risk assessment was proposed from the angle of risk concept in combination with the matter-element extension method and Markov chain method.The risk matrix was established to complete the integration evaluation from qualitative to quantitative aspects,the field monitoring data were brought into the risk assessment system,and the change rules and trends of slope risk were dynamically tracked and predicted.After fully understanding the risk nature and interrelation,the overall slope risk was dynamically analyzed in the proposed method.The results show that the proposed method can improve the timeliness and reliability of risk assessment results,the prediction results is more accurate and objective,and the proposed method has a good practical application value.

关 键 词：边坡工程 风险分析 动态评价模型 马尔科夫链 风险等级 物元可拓法 集成评价 风险矩阵 

分 类 号：TV698[水利工程—水利水电工程]