自适应变尺度干旱评价模型研究--以淮河流域为例  

Study on Adaptive Variable Scale Drought Evaluation Model

作　　者：方国华[1] 颜敏 闻昕[1,2] 林榕杰[1] FANG Guohua;YAN Min;WEN Xin;LIN Rongjie(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院,流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038

出　　处：《灾害学》2018年第2期31-37,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助(2017YFC0405900)；国家自然科学基金(51609061)；江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目

摘　　要：该文建立了自适应变尺度干旱评价模型,解决了定尺度评价中的干旱过程割裂和强度低估等问题,并实现不同历时干旱事件的评估和对比。首先,构造自适应模糊标准矩阵,采用模糊评价方法进行定尺度下的干旱评价,并基于对立统一定理进行干旱的识别,在此基础上,对识别的干旱过程进行回归分析和频率分析,从而建立自适应变尺度干旱评价模型。以淮河流域为例,首先构建自适应矩阵进行干旱的模糊评价,结果表明淮河流域55年来总体处于干旱且有着明显加强的趋势,其中‘王蚌区间北岸’的西北部和‘湖西区’的西北部干旱较强。其次通过干旱识别发现淮河流域干旱历时和干旱强度具有较强的相关性且满足自东南向西北逐渐增强的规律。最后建立不同分区下干旱历时和干旱强度间的关系以及判断标准,构建淮河流域自适应变尺度干旱评价模型。To solve the problem of variable scale drought evaluation,this paper establishes an adaptive variable scale drought evaluation model by regression analysis and frequency analysis to the drought processes and avoid the problem of drought separation and strength undervaluation,which can be distinguished through three steps including putting forward adaptive fuzzy standard matrix,evaluating drought under fixed scale by the way of fuzzy evaluation and distinguishing the drought processes based on the theory of the unity of opposites.Take the Huaihe basin for example,the results of fuzzy evaluation by establishing an adaptive fuzzy standard matrix indicates the Huaihe basin is in drought in the past 55years and has a strong tendency to strengthen,the degree of drought in northwest area of the section between Wangjiaba and Bengbu and the northwest area of the northwest section of Nansi Lake is higher than other regions.Then the drought processes distinguished reflects that the duration and strength of drought have a strong correlation and meet the law of increasing gradually from southeast to northwest.Finally,this paper establishes adaptive variable scale drought evaluation models for in Huaihe basin by simulating the relationship between the length and strength of the drought.

关 键 词：干旱评价模型 变尺度 自适应 回归分析 频率分析 淮河流域 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] S423[农业科学—植物保护]