极端降水事件下广西流域洪涝社会经济暴露度分析  

Study on Social-economic Exposure Degree Model of Basin Flood Hazard of Extreme Precipitation Events in Guangxi

作　　者：莫建飞[1,2] 钟仕全[1,2] 陈燕丽[1,2] 孙明[1,2] MO Jianfei;ZHONG Shiquan;CHEN Yanli;SUN Ming(Guangxi Meteorological Disaster Mitigation Institute,Nanning 530022,China;Remote Sensing Application and Validation Base of NSMC,Nanning 530022,China)

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区气象减灾研究所,广西南宁530022 [2]国家卫星气象中心遥感应用试验基地,广西南宁530022

出　　处：《灾害学》2018年第2期83-88,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：广西科学研究与技术开发计划项目资助(桂科攻1355010-9;桂科攻14124004-4-9)

摘　　要：利用广西90个气象站56年降水过程资料,采用百位数法确定12 h、24 h极端降水事件阈值,结合地理信息数据,构建广西12 h、24 h极端降水空间模型,获得了广西12 h、24 h极端降水事件空间分布图;利用DMSP/OLS夜间灯光、遥感本底、社会经济统计等多源数据,采用多元线性回归方法,构建像元尺度的广西社会经济空间模型,在此基础上,采用GIS技术,构建不同时段极端降水事件下广西流域洪涝社会经济暴露度模型,获得了100 m×100 m网格的广西12 h、24 h极端降水事件下洪涝人口和GDP暴露度空间分布图。结果表明:不同时段极端降水事件下广西流域洪涝社会经济暴露度具有明显的时空变异特征,12 h事件下,广西流域洪涝社会经济高暴露度分布在降水量为100~250 mm范围内的南流江、郁江、柳江、浔江、红水河、右江、桂江等流域;24 h事件下,广西流域洪涝社会经济高暴露度分布在降水量为100~300 mm范围内的南流江、郁江、柳江、浔江、红水河等流域。In this paper,Guangxi precipitation data of 90 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2016 is used to determine 12h and 24h extreme precipitation event threshold by digits method.Combined with geographic information data,12h and 24h extreme precipitation space model are established.Then,the 12h and 24h extreme precipitation events distribution maps are generated.With multiple linear regression method,dataset including DMSP/OLS night light data,remote sensing background database,social-economic datum and basic geographic information are used to build Guangxi Social-economic space model at pixel level.On the basis of that,by virtue of GIS technology,social-economic exposure degree model of basin flood hazard of extreme precipitation events happened at different times is constructed.Through this model,100m×100m flood victims and GDP space distribution map of 12h and 24h extreme precipitation events are drawn.The results show that,social-economic exposure degree of basin flood hazard of extreme precipitation events exhibit obvious spatial and temporal variation.For the 12h events,high exposure degree area,with precipitation from 100mm to 250mm,spread over Nanliujiang river,Yujiang river,Liujiang river,Xunjiang river,Hongshuihe river,Youjiang river,Guijiang river and so on.While,For the 24h events,high exposure degree area,with precipitation from 100mm to 300mm,distribute in Nanliujing river,Yujiang river,Liujiang river,Xunjiang river,Hongshuihe river and so on.

关 键 词：社会经济暴露度 极端降水事件 DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据 遥感本底数据 GIS 广西流域 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] TP399[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]