云南寒潮与昆明准静止锋的气候关联性分析  

The Climate Correlation Analysis between the Cold Wave in Yunnan and Kunming Quasi-Stationary Front

作　　者：陶云[1] 段旭[1] 姚愚[2] 段长春[1] 任菊章[1] 陈艳[1] 何华[3] TAO Yun;DUAN Xu;YAO Yu;DUAN Changchun;REN Juzhang;CHEN Yan;HE Hua(Yunnan Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Kunming 650034,China;Yunnan Climate Center,Kunming 650034,China;Yunnan Meteorological Observatory,Kunming 650034,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省气象科学研究所,云南昆明650034 [2]云南省气候中心,云南昆明650034 [3]云南省气象台,云南昆明650034

出　　处：《灾害学》2018年第2期99-105,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41565002;41365006;41365007;41665004);NSFC-云南联合基金重点项目(U1502233)

摘　　要：利用云南122个气象测站1961-2014年1-12月逐日平均气温资料和日最低气温资料及1961-2010年云贵高原地面逐日观测数据,统计分析了云南寒潮与昆明准静止锋间气候关联性。结果表明:(1)云南寒潮频次偏多区域主要位于昆明准静止锋多年平均位置的东侧(即锋后)。(2)云南寒潮频次与昆明准静止锋频次的年代际变化基本是相反的,近50年寒潮频次减少,在1985年附近,寒潮频数由偏多期转为了偏少期;昆明准静止锋频次近50年为增加,在2002年,静止锋频数由偏少期转为了偏多期。年际变化存在显著正相关关系,特别是冬季,即寒潮爆发偏多(少)时,昆明准静止锋也偏多(少),这种关系在静止锋的东侧(锋后)更为密切。(3)云南寒潮频次与昆明准静止锋平均经向位置年代际变化基本一致。近50年寒潮频次减少,静止锋平均经向位置略偏西。年际变化存在显著负相关关系,即寒潮爆发偏多(少)时,昆明准静止锋平均经向位置偏西(东),这种关系在静止锋西侧(锋前)比东侧(锋后)更为密切。(4)寒潮移动与静止锋的移动有着密切联系,即影响云南寒潮位置偏西时,昆明准静止锋位置相应偏西,反之,偏东。影响云南寒潮强度与静止锋位置存在正相关,即变温(或温度距平)越大(小),静止锋越偏东(西)。Based on daily mean temperature and minimum temperature of 122 meteorological observation stations in Yunnan and daily ground observation stations data of Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau from 1961 to 2010,The climate correlation between the Cold Wave(CW)in Yunnan and Kunming Quasi-Stationary Front(KQSF)is analyzed.The results show:①The more CW frequency region over Yunnan is mainly located in the east side of the KQSF average position(the back of KQSF).②The interdecadal change of Yunnan CW frequency is basically opposite to the KQSF.The Yunnan CW frequency has decreased in nearly 50 years and from more than mean period to less in near 1985.The KQSF frequency has increased in nearly 50 years and from less than mean period to more in near 2002.The annual change has obviously positive correlation between CW and KQSF,especially in the winter.When the CW frequency is more(less)than the normal,the KQSF frequency is also more(less)than the normal.The relationship is closer in the east side of the KQSF(the back of KQSF).③The interdecadal change of Yunnan CW frequency is basically consistent with the mean meridional location of KQSF.In nearly 50 years,the Yunnan CW frequency has decreased and the meridional location of KQSF is slightly by west.The annual change has obviously negative correlation.When the CW frequency is more(less)than the normal,the KQSF location is more west(east)than the normal.The relationship is closer in the west side of the KQSF(the front of KQSF)than the east side of the KQSF(the back of KQSF).④The CW movement has closely relationship with KQSF movement.When the CW location is more west than the normal,the KQSF location is also more west than the normal;and vic versa.The CW intensity has positive correlation with the KQSF location.When alternating temperature(or temperature anomaly)is bigger(smaller),the KQSF location is more east(west)than the normal.

关 键 词：寒潮 云南 昆明准静止锋 气候特征 关联性 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P642[天文地球—工程地质学]