气候工程对中国极端降雨强度的影响(2010-2099)  

Study on the Impact of Climate Engineering on Extreme Rainfall Intensity in China from 2010 to 2099

作　　者：孔锋[1,2,3,4] 孙劭[5] 史纬恒 吕丽莉[1,2] 辛源[1,2] 方建[7] KONG Feng;SUN Shao;SHI Weiheng;LU Lili;XIN Yuan;FANG Jian(China Meteorological Administration Training Center,Beijing 100081,China;China Meteorological Administration Development Research Center,Beijing 100081,China;State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,Ministry of Civil Affairs&Ministry of Education,Beijing 100875,China;National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China;PLA Troop of 71901 Unit 59,Liaocheng 252000,China;School of Resources and Environmental Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局气象干部培训学院 [2]中国气象局发展研究中心 [3]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室 [4]民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院 [5]中国气象局国家气候中心 [6]71901部队59分队 [7]武汉大学资源与环境科学学院

出　　处：《灾害学》2018年第2期106-113,共8页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41701103;41775078);中国气象局气候变化专项项目(CCSF201843;CCSF201844);中亚大气科学研究基金项目(CAAS201804);山西省高等学校创新人才支持计划项目(晋教科[2016]3号)

摘　　要：针对气候工程方法中争论最多的太阳辐射管理(Solar Radiation Management),基于BNU-ESM模式的气候工程(G4实验)和非气候工程(RCP4.5)两种情景,以2010-2099年日值降雨量数据的95%和99%分位数值作为强降雨和极端降雨事件的阈值。对超阈值取样(POT)的数据采用韦伯分布(Weibull)进行拟合,诊断10、20、50和100年一遇的强降雨和极端强降雨。结果表明:在两种情景下,强降雨和极端强降雨的强度随年遇型的增加而增强,并表现出东南高-西北低空间分异特征。气候工程整体上有助于中国地区强降雨和极端强降雨的增多,同时具有空间异质性,即表现出抑制部分地区的强降雨和极端强降雨的发生。In the context of global climate change and rapid urbanization,climate governance has become one of the unavoidable challenges of human society.Therefore,climate engineering is increasingly mentioned in the international climate negotiations.According to the climate in the most controversial engineering method of solar radiation management,BNU-ESM model based on climate engineering(G4)and non climate engineering(RCP4.5)two,with 2010-2099 years of rainfall data of 95%and 99%percentile as heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall event threshold.The data of over threshold sampling(POT)were fitted by Weibull distribution to diagnose the heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall in 10,20,50 and 100 years return period.The results showed that:in two scenarios,with the increasing strength of heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall in the enhanced,and showed a southeast high-northwest low spatial characteristics.Climate engineering,in general,contributes to the increase in heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall in China,as well as spatial heterogeneity,which represents the suppression of heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall in parts of the country.This research is of great significance for the future global climate control and regional climate adaptation.

关 键 词：气候工程 极端降雨 重现期 气候变化 区域差异 中国 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P642[天文地球—工程地质学]