住房价格波动对经济增长的影响——基于房产抵押效应与财富效应的视角  

The Impact of Housing Price Fluctuation on Economic Growth——Based on the Perspective of Mortgage Effect and Wealth Effect

作　　者：郑骏川 ZHENG Jun-chuan(School of Rongzhi,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 401320,China;Research Institute of Economics and Management,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu Sichuan 610074,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学融智学院,重庆401320 [2]西南财经大学经济与管理研究院,四川成都610074

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2018年第4期98-103,共6页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金：重庆市社会科学规划项目(2014YBJJ031);重庆市教委人文社会科学重点研究项目(13SKT01)

摘　　要：住房价格波动主要通过抵押效应和财富效应对经济增长产生影响,但不同的影响渠道却包含着截然不同的政策含义,因此对两种效应的区分显得尤为必要。文章基于我国31省(市)2000-2016年省级面板数据的实证研究发现:住房价格影响经济增长的抵押效应显著为正,财富效应显著为负,且抵押效应显著强于财富效应;房价变动对经济增长的影响作用具有时间结构性差异,在2004年后,房价变动的抵押效应和财富效应均有明显增强;在金融市场自由化程度越高的地区,房价变动的财富效应与抵押效应均有所增强;家庭面临借贷约束越紧时,房价变动的抵押效应越强,而财富效应会减弱。House prices mainly affect the economic growth though collateral effect and wealth effect袁the distinctions between the two effects are important for their distinctive policy implications.Using annual data from 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2010袁our dynamic panel regression analysis provides the following findings.Firstly袁the collateral effect of house prices is positively significant袁while the wealth effect is negatively significant袁the collateral effect is much stronger than wealth effect.Secondly袁there exists a time structural break in the impact of house prices on economic growth袁after 2004袁both collateral effect and wealth effect is larger than early periods.Thirdly袁both collateral effect and wealth effect is larger in those regions with developed financial market.Finally袁when households are more financially constrained袁the collateral effect is stronger袁the wealth effect is weaker.

关 键 词：住房价格 经济增长 抵押效应 财富效应 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]