1997-2016年宿迁市麻风流行趋势及时间序列分析  

The epidemic trend and time series analysis of leprosy in Suqian from 1997 to 2016

作　　者：张杨 周惠[1] 金广杰 崔耀 张连华[3] ZHANG Yang;ZHOU Hui;JIN Guang-jie;CUI Yao;ZHANG Lian-hua(Suqian Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jiangsu Suqian 223800,China)

机构地区：[1]宿迁市疾病预防控制中心,江苏宿迁223800 [2]江苏省现场流行病学培训项目 [3]江苏省疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《江苏预防医学》2018年第2期148-150,共3页Jiangsu Journal of Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的建立宿迁市麻风流行预测模型。方法收集1997-2016年历年麻风病季报表、全国麻风病防治管理信息系统(lepmis)中数据,建立宿迁市麻风季度患病数时间序列,应用ARIMA乘积季节模型建模,用2016年数据检验模型,并开展2017年疫情预测。结果宿迁市1997—2015年麻风季度患病数ARIMA最优模型为ARIMA(1,0,0)(2,1,0)4,2016年麻风各季度期间患病数真实值落在根据该模型预测值95%可信区间范围内。结论建立的ARIMA模型,可有效预测麻风流行形势,为麻风病防控决策提供科学依据。Objective To establish prediction model for leprosy in Suqian city.Methods Data from quarterly reports in Suqian and the National leprosy prevention management information system(lepmis)from 1997 to 2016 were collected to establish leprosy prevalence quarter time series in Suqian city.The multiple seasonal ARIMA model was employed to establish data validation model for 2016 and the prevalence in 2017 was predicted.Results The ARIMA(1,0,0)(2,1,0)model was the best model to fit the incidence of leprosy from 1997 to 2015,and incidence in 2016 was in the 95%confidence interval.Conclusion The established ARIMA model can predict leprosy incidence effectively and provide scientific evidence for its prevention and control.

关 键 词：麻风病 ARIMA模型 时间序列 流行趋势 

分 类 号：R755[医药卫生—皮肤病学与性病学]