基于模糊遗传算法的输电线路故障混合威布尔分布模型  

Mixed Weibull distribution model of transmission line fault based on fuzzy genetic algorithm

作　　者：李莉 熊炜[2] 赵艺杰 余梦天 朱余林 刘隽楷 LI Li;XIONG Wei;ZHAO Yi-jie;YU Meng-tian;ZHU Yu-lin;LIU Jun-kai(Electric Power Research Institute of Guizhou Power Grid Co.Ltd.,Guiyang 550001,China;Electrical Engineering College,Guizhou University,Guiyang 550025,China;Guiyang Power Supply Bureau of Guizhou Power Grid Co.Ltd.,Guiyang 550002,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院,贵州贵阳550001 [2]贵州大学电气工程学院,贵州贵阳550025 [3]贵阳供电局,贵州贵阳550002

出　　处：《电力科学与技术学报》2018年第1期60-66,共7页Journal of Electric Power Science And Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51667007)

摘　　要：输电线路故障失效受其所处位置、环境、运维水平和使用寿命等因素影响,为准确反映多失效模式下输电线路故障间隔时间的概率分布,建立考虑气候因素的输电线路故障混合威布尔分布模型,采用遗传算法对混合威布尔分布参数进行拟合,并采用模糊逻辑控制,动态调整遗传算法中的交叉概率和变异概率。算例分析结果表明:所提方法可以提高遗传算法收敛速度,克服遗传算法过早收敛的问题,提高了混合威布尔分布参数拟合的精确性和适用性。相关方法可用于指导电网规划、调度运行和设备维护。The transmission line failure mode is affected by the following factors,including fault location,environment,operation level and service life.In order to accurately reflect fault interval probability distribution model under multiple failure modes,a mixed Weibull distribution model considering climate factors was established in this paper.The genetic algorithm was used to fit the parameters of the mixed Weibull distribution,and the fuzzy logic control was used to dynamically adjust the cross probability and mutation probability in the genetic algorithm.Experiment results showed that the proposed method could improve the convergence speed of genetic algorithm,and the problem of premature convergence was solved.The parameter fitting accuracy and applicability of the mixed Weibull distribution were improved,which could be used to guide the power grid planning,operation and maintenance of equipment.

关 键 词：输电线路 失效模式 混合威布尔分布 遗传算法 模糊控制 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]