城乡差异视角下的人口结构、医疗保险与居民高储蓄  

Population Structure,Medical Insurance and High Residential Savings from the Perspective of Urban and Rural Differences

作　　者：周依群[1] 王国军[1] ZHOU Yiqun;WANG Guojun(University of International Economics and Business,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学保险学院,北京100029

出　　处：《首都经济贸易大学学报》2018年第3期13-20,共8页Journal of Capital University of Economics and Business

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"建立社会公平保障体系与维护社会主义公平正义"(13&ZD042);对外经济贸易大学国内外联合培养研究生项目(JS20170203)

摘　　要：基于城乡差异的视角考察人口结构和医疗保险制度对居民预防性储蓄动机的影响。实证结果表明:老年抚养比和少儿抚养比对居民储蓄起到一定的抑制作用,医疗覆盖面和医疗保险缴费水平对居民储蓄的影响为正。从城镇和农村分样本回归结果来看,少儿抚养比对城镇居民和农村居民的储蓄均呈现显著负向影响,老年抚养比对城市居民储蓄影响并不显著,而对农村居民的储蓄呈显著负向影响,医疗保险覆盖面对城镇居民储蓄呈现不显著的影响,对农村居民储蓄呈现显著正向影响。医疗保险的缴费率对城镇居民的储蓄存在显著正向影响,而对农村居民的储蓄存在显著负向影响。研究表明目前的医疗保险制度并没有起到缓解居民预防性储蓄的作用。实施全面二孩政策和医疗保险制度改革降低未来风险的不确定性,对降低高储蓄可以起到一定的作用。This paper researches urban and rural areas from the perspective of population structure and medical insurance system based on precautionary savings.The empirical results show that the burden of child rearing and the negative effects of elderly support are negative for residents’savings,and the impact of medical coverage and medical insurance payment on savings is positive.From the urban and rural sub sample regression results,the child dependency ratio has significant negative influence on urban and rural residents savings,the elderly dependency ratio’s influence on city residents savings is not significant,but its influence on rural residents savings rate is significantly negative.Health care insurance coverage does not affect urban residents’savings obviously,while has a significant positive effect on rural residents savings.The contribution rate of medical insurance has positive influence on the savings of urban residents,but has a significant negative impact on the savings of rural residents.Studies show that the current medical insurance system does not alleviate the precautionary savings role of residents.The current implementation of the comprehensive two child policy and the reduction of the uncertainty of future risks through the reform of the medical insurance system can play a role in reducing the high savings.

关 键 词：年龄结构 医疗保险 生命周期 城乡差异 储蓄倾向 

分 类 号：F842.6[经济管理—保险]