我国三大产业增加值与水电、火电、核电发电量关系研究  

Research on the Relationship between Added Value of China's Three Major Industries and Power Generation of Hydropower, Thermal Power and Nuclear Power

作　　者：寇毓莹 胡晓华[1] KOU Yuying;HU Xiaohua(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Hainan Normal University,Haikou 571158,China)

机构地区：[1]海南师范大学数学与统计学院,海南海口571158

出　　处：《海南师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第1期86-91,共6页Journal of Hainan Normal University（Natural Science）

摘　　要：文章研究水电、火电与核电发电量随时间变化的时序关系及各发电量与三大产业增加值的量化关系.利用国家统计局2000—2015年的电力年度数据,借助Eviews 6.0软件,建立Brown单参数指数平滑模型并对电力发展短期趋势进行预测;建立双变量弹性分析模型并预测三大产业增加值对水电、火电、核电发电量产生的影响;建立多元回归模型,发现水电、火电、核电发电量与三大产业增加值为正相关.This paper studies the time-series relationship between the generation of hydropower,thermal power and nuclear power over time and the quantitative relationship between each generation and the added value of the three industries.Using the annual power data of State Statistics Bureau from 2000 to 2015,and by means of Eviews 6.0 software,it builds the Brown single parameter exponential smoothing model,and forecasts the short-term trend of electric power development;it builds the analysis model of double variable elasticity,and prediction of the effects of three industrial added values on the generation of hydropower,thermal power and nuclear power;it also builds multiple linear regression model,finding that the hydropower,thermal power and nuclear power generation are positively correlated with the three industrial added values.

关 键 词：发电量 三大产业增加值 指数平滑模型 弹性分析 多元线性回归 

分 类 号：O29[理学—应用数学]