考虑隐性故障的单一保护装置风险评估  

Risk Assessment on Single-protection Equipment Considering Hidden Failures

作　　者：卢扬 李永丽[1] 李仲青[2] 孙文鹏 LU Yang;LI Yongli;LI Zhongqing;SUN Wenpeng(Key Laboratory of Smart Grid of Ministry of Education(Tianjin University),Tianjin 300072,China;China Electric Power Research Institute,Beijing 100192,China)

机构地区：[1]智能电网教育部重点实验室(天津大学),天津300072 [2]中国电力科学研究院,北京100192

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2018年第4期84-90,共7页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

基　　金：国家电网公司大电网重大专项资助项目(SGCC-MPLG028-2012)

摘　　要：为了分析隐性故障对继电保护装置的影响,综合考虑保护发生隐性故障概率和其后果的严重程度,提出了针对保护装置的隐性故障风险评估方法。首先,利用马尔可夫状态空间法计算保护发生隐性故障的概率,并基于效用函数与蒙特卡洛法构造了过电压、低电压、元件过载和母线失负荷4种单一电气量严重度指标;其次,基于层次分析法和熵权法对以上4种严重度指标加权综合,并进一步将概率与严重度相乘得到保护隐性故障风险指标;最后,通过算例验证了方法的有效性。本研究工作为电力系统运行维护人员提供了一定的参考依据。In order to analyze the impact of hidden failures on the relay protection equipment,a risk assessment method for the hidden failures of protection equipment is proposed considering the probabilities of hidden failures and the severity of their consequence comprehensively.First,the probabilities of hidden failures are calculated by using the Markov state-space method,and four single severity indices are constructed based on utility function and Monte Carlo method,including over-voltage,low-voltage,device over-loading and bus load loss.Then,based on analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and entropy weight method,the above four indices are synthesized with weights,and the risk index of hidden failures can be acquired by multiplying the probability value with severity index.Finally,a numerical example verifies the validity of the proposed method.The results in this paper can provide reference for the operation and maintenance personnel of power system.

关 键 词：继电保护系统 风险评估 隐性故障率 严重度函数 蒙特卡洛法 

分 类 号：TM774[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]