线性异方差模型在太阳能电池退化及可靠性分析中的应用  

Heteroscedastic Linear Model Based Reliability Evaluation for Solar Cell Degradation Testing

作　　者：盛志冬 于丹[2,3] SHENG ZhiDong;YU Dan(School of Management,University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei,230026,China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,100080,China;School of Mathematical Sciences,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学管理学院,合肥230026 [2]中国科学院系统科学研究所,北京100080 [3]中国科学院大学数学科学学院,北京100049

出　　处：《应用概率统计》2018年第1期101-110,共10页Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics

摘　　要：太阳能电池片是构成卫星太阳能电池板的基本元件,太阳能电池板的可靠性及寿命是影响整个卫星可靠性和寿命的重要因素.太阳能电池片随着使用时间的延长其光电转换效率随时间发生退化.在本文中,我们基于太阳电池片的加速退化试验测试数据,对太阳能电池片的退化规律进行统计建模,并进一步对太阳能电池板进行可靠性分析与评估.针对太阳能电池片退化率与累计辐照剂量的试验数据,我们用线性异方差模型来进行建模,最后利用Fiducial推断的方法得到太阳能电池板的寿命分布,本文将利用一个实例来说明分析和计算过程.Solar cell is the basic component of satellite photovoltaic panels with complicated redundant system structure.Its reliability plays an important role in the system,and its performance shows a degradation trend over time.In this paper,study is conducted for the solar cell degradation modeling and reliability analysis based on practical testing results.Specifically,we illustrate an accelerated test for the attenuation ratio character test under different accumulative irradiation levels,focusing on the heteroscedasticity of the collected testing data.A heteroscedastic linear model is proposed,and the life distribution of the photovoltaic panel is obtained by using Fiducial method.A numerical example is shown for the purpose of illustration.

关 键 词：加速实验 异方差 太阳能电池 

分 类 号：O213.2[理学—概率论与数理统计]