收入水平、收入差距与自主创新--兼论“中等收入陷阱”的形成与跨越  

Income Level,Income Gap and Independent Innovation:The Formation and Escaping of the Middle-income Trap

作　　者：程文[1,2] 张建华 晓鸥[4] CHENG Wen;ZHANG Jianhua(Hubei University;Massachusetts Institute of Technology;Huazhong University of Science and Technology)

机构地区：[1]湖北大学商学院 [2]美国麻省理工学院媒体实验室 [3]华中科技大学经济学院,430074 [4]不详

出　　处：《经济研究》2018年第4期47-62,共16页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“新常态下‘中等收入陷阱’的定量识别、风险预警与对策研究”(项目号:16CJL015)的资助。

摘　　要：本文构建了一个连续收入分布和创新不确定环境下企业产品创新的数理模型,突破了以往研究中收入两分法、不区分企业类型及消费者匹配的局限性。通过模型推导和数值模拟发现:在经济发展的不同阶段,消费者收入水平与收入差距的不同组合对内资企业的自主创新行为会产生迥然不同的影响:当经济体处于中低收入阶段时,收入差距的扩大并不会抑制自主创新与经济增长;但当进入中高收入阶段后,如果收入差距未能随着收入水平的提高而不断缩小,不仅自主创新将会受到抑制,经济增长也将陷入停滞。这一微观机制解释了许多贫富分化严重的后发国家在进入中等收入水平的发展阶段后,无法顺利转型为创新驱动的增长模式,落入"中等收入陷阱"的原因。本文还运用中国内资企业分行业面板数据进一步验证了模型的推论。本文有助于厘清收入水平与收入差距的不同组合对内资企业自主创新的不同影响机理,为中国实施创新驱动发展战略,跨越"中等收入陷阱"提供了参考。Most research on the middleincome trap adopts the political economy perspective with an emphasis on how large income gaps lead to dissatisfaction in the poor,a confrontation between the rich and poor and social unrest in Latin American and Asian countries when entering the middleincome stage(Cai&Wang,2014).Others have a onesided emphasis on middleincome countriesweak economic growth due to the loss of cost advantages and a lack of technological innovation(Yao&Han,2015).In addition to extreme examples that seriously affect social stability,more mundane factors such as demand pull,income level and income gap intermediate the effect technological innovation has on the formation of a middleincome trap.This complex mechanism is the key point to explore for the innovationdriven development strategy currently used in China to get out of the middleincome trap.Using a vertical product differentiation model,this paper introduces a continuous symmetric trapezoid density function to describe the income distribution of consumers and to construct a mathematical model of the impact of income levels and income gaps on product innovation under innovation uncertainty.Combining this with a new product diffusion model,this paper develops a mathematical model of the impact of income level and income gap on economic growth from a macroeconomic perspective.Through model simulations,we depict the influence of income levels and income gaps on microeconomic independent innovation and macroeconomic growth under different growth patterns,revealing the formation mechanism and the escaping path of the middleincome trap.This paper uses panel data on 29 Chinese manufacturing industries from 1998 to 2008 from the China Statistical Yearbook on Science and Technology to verify the model.This paper concludes that different combinations of income levels and income gaps have totally different impacts on the independent innovation behavior of domestic enterprises in the different stages of economic development.In the lowi

关 键 词：收入水平 收入差距 自主创新 中等收入陷阱 

分 类 号：O11[理学—数学] O15[理学—基础数学]