企业财务波动与经济景气水平--微观到宏观的交互影响与经验证据  

Corporate Financial Fluctuation and Economic Prosperity Status——Interaction of Micro-economy to Macro-economy and Empirical Evidence

作　　者：黎春[1] 赵德武[2] 马永强[2] LI Chun;ZHAO Dewu;MA Yongqiang(Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学统计学院 [2]西南财经大学会计学院

出　　处：《经济与管理研究》2018年第8期42-52,共11页Research on Economics and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“货币政策对企业财务非对称性传导效应研究”(16BGL059);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“中国上市公司财务指数编制的理论、模型及其应用”(71102180)。

摘　　要：微观企业的财务波动与宏观经济的景气水平密切相关,但由于企业财务的微观属性限制,已有研究往往将其视作宏观经济影响下的结果,而忽略了二者之间存在的相互制约、相互影响的交互关系。本文通过构建上市公司财务指数,将微观企业的财务信息提炼为动态的、整体的指数信息,采用动态模型来挖掘企业财务与经济景气之间的交互影响关系。实证结果证实企业财务是宏观经济波动的微观基础,企业各类财务指数也具有景气指数的先行、滞后或预警指数的性质,对宏观经济的走势具有监测预警效应。The level of micro-corporate finance always interacts with the status of macro-economic prosperity.However,because of different attributes,existing studies always regard corporate finance as the outcomes of macro-economic influence,while ignore the interaction between them.Based on the financial index of listed companies,the corporate financial information is extracted to dynamic and comprehensive indicators,in order to analyze the influencing relations between economic prosperity and corporate finance from the macro and dynamic view.Empirical result confirms corporate finance is the micro-foundation of macro-economic fluctuation.Some financial indices having the same qualities,such as leading,lagging and early-warning,can monitor and early-warn the macro-economic trends.

关 键 词：经济景气指数 财务指数 交互影响 脉冲响应 

分 类 号：F275.5[经济管理—企业管理]