汇率市场化与资本账户开放的路径选择  

The Path of Exchange Rate Marketization and Capital Account Liberalization

作　　者：彭红枫 肖祖沔 祝小全 Peng Hongfeng;Xiao Zumian;Zhu Xiaoquan

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学金融学院,济南市市中区舜耕路40号250002 [2]清华大学五道口金融学院,北京市海淀区成府路43号100083

出　　处：《世界经济》2018年第8期26-50,共25页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"人民币加入SDR;一篮子货币定值与中国宏观经济的均衡研究"(16ZDA032);教育部人文社会科学研究项目"人民币国际化进程中资本账户开放及其风险防范研究"(16YJA790040);"泰山学者"专项工程经费的支持

摘　　要：本文构建包含资本管制和外汇市场干预的开放经济DSGE模型,将不同汇率干预程度和资本管控程度下的经济福利与基准模型进行比较,探究不同政策组合可能引致的经济福利损失。结果表明,实行完全浮动汇率制度配合开放资本账户所获得的经济福利水平显著高于固定或有管理浮动汇率制下的经济福利水平。但在现行有管理浮动汇率制度下,一味降低汇率市场干预力度或者放松资本管制反而会降低经济福利水平。数值模拟结果显示,中国应当协同推进汇率市场化和资本账户开放两大金融改革,并且在汇率完全市场化之前,有必要保持一定程度的资本管制。This paper constructs a DSGE model of open economy that includes capital controls and government interventions in the foreign exchange market.We estimate the economic welfare under different intensities of capital control and intervention in the exchange rate market,drawing a comparative analysis with the benchmark model.The results show that compared with the fixed or managed floating regime,the floating exchange rate regime,coordinated with the open capital account,leads to the highest level of economic welfare.In the managed floating exchange rate system,blindly decreasing the intensity of exchange rate market intervention,or the degree of capital control,will reduce the level of economic welfare.Once the intensity of intervention in the exchange rate market declines to a certain level,the exchange rate regime reform should be introduced to ensure the independence of monetary policy and macroeconomic stabilization.The simulation results suggest that the two major financial reforms should be coordinated,and that it is necessary to maintain capital control to a certain extent before exchange rate marketization is fully achieved.

关 键 词：汇率市场化 资本账户开放 开放经济 DSGE模型 

分 类 号：H55[语言文字] J18[艺术—艺术理论]