土地依附效应与半城镇化事实:对托达罗模型的修正与实证检验  

The Land Attachment Effect is the Reason of Peri-urbanization?——Revising the Todaro Model and Empirical Analysis

作　　者：朱要龙[1] ZHU Yao-long

机构地区：[1]云南大学发展研究院

出　　处：《产经评论》2018年第4期140-153,共14页Industrial Economic Review

基　　金：国家行政学院合作课题"以人为本的城镇化发展研究:基于土地制度的理论视角"(项目编号:17KYHZ065;项目负责人:谭鑫);云南大学笹川优秀青年教育基金资助项目"制度;人口与中国经济增长"(项目编号:16KT102;项目负责人:朱要龙)

摘　　要：半城镇化问题是中国城镇化过程中无法回避的一大难题。目前,伴随城市户籍制度改革的深化,半城镇化率未能呈现收敛态势。基于经典"两过程三环节"理论的引申,重新分解乡城转移人口的城镇化过程,推定认为半城镇化的主要矛盾已经转向农村退出环节。现行农地制度将过剩农业人口约束在集体土地之上,没有为其土地退出与财产功能实现提供制度通道。当直面城市进入环节的制度风险,乡城转移人口依附于土地,构建起了"进城能打工,退守能种田"的自我保护机制,是为土地依附效应。基于此,对托达罗模型做出修正,并通过计量分析检验理论假说与模型修正的合理性,探讨户籍和土地对乡城转移人口"城市进入-城市留居"和"农村退出-城市落户"决策的影响。延伸认为,突破半城镇化困局依赖于农地制度的改革创新,将"人地依附"关系转向"人地保障"关系。Peri-urbanization is a major problem that cannot be avoided in the process of urbanization in China.With the deepening of urban household registration reform,the peri-urbanization rate has not shown a convergence trend.This paper re-decomposes the urbanization process.And we find that rural exit is the cause of peri-urbanization.The existing agricultural land system restricts the surplus agricultural population to collective land and does not provide institutional access for its land withdrawal and property function realization.When facing the institutional risk of entering the city,the rural population is unwilling to give up the land to protect their own interests.In this paper,Todaro model is revised,and the rationality of theoretical hypothesis and model correction is tested by econometric analysis.Finally,we put forward the viewpoint of promoting the innovation of farmland system.

关 键 词：半城镇化 农村人口退出 土地依附效应 农地制度创新 

分 类 号：F299.21[经济管理—国民经济]