ECMWF模式对南方春雨期降水预报的检验和分析  

Verification and analysis on precipitation forecast of ECMWF model during spring rain period in South China

作　　者：辛辰 漆梁波[1] XIN Chen;QI Liangbo(Shanghai Meteorological Center,Shanghai,200030)

机构地区：[1]上海中心气象台,上海200030

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2018年第4期383-391,共9页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：中国气象局暴雨专家创新团队专项(CMACXTD002-3)

摘　　要：2016年3月8日起,欧洲中期天气预报中心全球模式(以下简称ECMWF模式)进行了全面升级。利用常规气象资料和相关ECMWF模式预报资料,对ECMWF模式改进后的春雨期(3—5月)降水预报进行检验和分析,同时总结不同天气背景下,ECMWF模式降水预报的误差分布特征及原因。结果表明:2016年ECMWF模式对流性降水的落区预报偏差成为我国南方春雨期降水落区预报误差的主要来源;当环流背景表现为北方无明显冷空气南下,江南和华南地区受南支槽前西南暖湿气流控制时,模式容易在西南地区预报过多的对流性降水,而其下游地区则存在少报或漏报。European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)model has had a major upgrade since 8th March 2016.Based on routine observational data and numerical forecast data of ECMWF model,the performance of ECMWF precipitation prediction products during spring rain period(from March to May)were tested and analyzed.The characteristics and causes for deviation between precipitation prediction and observation under different atmospheric circulations were summarized.The results show that to a large extent,the convective precipitation products would be the main cause of the prediction deviation during spring rain period in 2016.When South China is controlled by the southwesterly flow of southern trough with little cold air intruding into,the convective precipitation is likely to be overestimated in southwest China,leading to the underestimate of precipitation in the downstream area.

关 键 词：ECMWF模式 预报误差 大尺度降水 对流性降水 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]